The Long Investor
Airline Captain & Investment Analyst, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Nvidia's valuation gives too little credit to its expected long-term earnings growth. Its forward P/E-to-growth ratio is 0.28, the lowest since late 2023; the bullish read depends on those growth expectations proving accurate. x.com x.com
Nvidia's rising revenue alongside a much lower P/E is getting hard to ignore. Its chart shows quarterly revenue above $80 billion in Q2 2026 while the P/E is around 30x, down from much higher multiples in prior years. x.com
Nvidia's AI profits are real, but its compute demand depends heavily on fragile venture funding. Per Chamath, 1% of firms account for 90% of AI spending, and 72 cents of each dollar comes from unprofitable VC-backed firms. Venture money passes through startups to Nvidia and cloud suppliers; if the next raises fail, concentrated orders could contract together. x.com x.com x.com
Nvidia looks interesting again because rising earnings estimates have not been reflected in its valuation. FY28 EPS estimates rose about 25% in 60 days while shares stayed roughly flat; it trades below 14 times FY28 earnings with a mid-single-digit free-cash-flow yield. Exponential change is hard to grasp, and it is hard to see Nvidia not winning if the US does, though there is little capital to absorb market wobbles. x.com x.com
Amazon looks cheap against its expected long-term earnings growth if that growth proves accurate. Its five-year consensus growth is the fastest in the Magnificent 7 after Nvidia, while its 0.90 forward P/E-to-growth ratio is the lowest excluding Nvidia. x.com x.com
Nvidia isn't worth owning into the future: the law of large numbers is hard to beat, and the stock has been selling off on earnings beats. Margins are declining, and @AtlasShrug1 notes Nvidia is stretching by extending credit where traditional lenders won't, lowering the quality of each incremental revenue dollar. Efforts to cut HBM content per token and improve memory architectures may offer only temporary relief. x.com x.com
Nvidia's results should be impressive and beat expectations, because it reliably makes enormous amounts of money, as certain as death and taxes. Selling the stock just before the report made no sense. x.com x.com x.com
Nvidia's 0.39 PEG suggests its valuation is low relative to growth. Its 26.56x P/E and 17.55x forward P/E are below their respective ten-year medians of 50.36x and 26.5x. x.com
Nvidia is priced for perfection, so even strong earnings could send it lower; it fell after each of its last four beats, including one of 5.7%. Demand is real, with $1 trillion of orders for 2026–27 against about $253 billion of trailing sales, so slowing growth isn't the worry; the worry is that no result can satisfy a perfect price. At $5.2 trillion it is the S&P 500's biggest piece, and options imply a roughly 5% swing, about $260 billion, on the ~$92 billion of expected sales. x.com
Nvidia has never been cheaper on trailing earnings despite being the past decade's best-performing stock. Its trailing P/E is about 27.1x, near the bottom of the five-year range. x.com