Options selling with Christian
Growth Investor, Options Selling, Creator of Stock Catalysts
T1 Energy's $135M purchase of formerly licensed TOPCon IP could save $25M-$40M in annual fees and improve future margins. A waiver to import up to 1.725 GW of cells could bridge Dallas production until G2 Austin starts in Q1 2027. It could be one of the energy sector's most interesting turnarounds, but is not proven: $120M in convertible debt has been raised, more funding is needed, and further debt or equity could limit existing shareholders' upside. x.comÂ
T1 Energy's G2_Austin buildout is a sign of life, but financing its costly first phase remains a major risk. The company estimates more than $500 million in total capex for its 2.1 GW Phase 1. Backup financing is likely to bring significant dilution; without funding, bankruptcy and an asset sale or dilution toward zero and a reverse split are likely. The price looks very interesting and the setup asymmetric, though downside remains significant. x.com x.comÂ
T1 Energy is not worth buying: John Tinsman warns that unprofitable businesses such as T1 face dilution risk, high stock-based compensation, unlikely future promises and difficulty valuing them in a panic. x.com x.comÂ
T1 Energy holds a named, near-term catalyst the market has not yet priced: financing for its G2 project is committed for Q2 2026, within six weeks. It is one of the only publicly traded US solar manufacturers operating at scale. It is a 1.1% position in Leopold Aschenbrenner's 13F; there, the large positions look priced for confirmation and were trimmed, while small positions with concrete pending events are where remaining asymmetry is more likely to sit. x.comÂ
Wall Street is still underestimating T1 Energy, America's first vertically integrated silicon-based solar company, which is powering the AI data center buildout with domestic clean energy. x.comÂ
T1 Energy remains unattractive because, as an unprofitable business, it faces high dilution risk, substantial stock-based compensation, reliance on unlikely future promises and valuation that becomes difficult in a panic. x.comÂ
T1 Energy's drop on regulatory probe headlines looks like a buying opportunity because its fundamentals are accelerating. Q1 revenue tripled to $177.6M, crushing estimates, and the $32M Kore Power acquisition expands it into data-center infrastructure. Institutional ownership is at record highs, with Situational Awareness buying 10 million shares in Q1, and a $2.5M bet on October $18 calls signals conviction the price could double. After a ~16% drop it sits in a key Fibonacci zone. x.comÂ
T1 Energy is undervalued as an essential power provider for the AI boom, with an aggressive 18-month target of $18 against an average analyst target of $9.00-10.25. As hyperscalers hit a power bottleneck, its pivot to US solar manufacturing, battery storage via the KORE Power acquisition and possible data center repurposing make it a high-conviction growth play. The target assumes successful G2 Austin execution, positive EBITDA in 2027 and a lasting premium for US AI-adjacent energy names. x.com … Show more
T1 Energy looks unattractive because its management can't be trusted. Against a claim that it is a safe risk that will boom like SanDisk, it more likely won't. x.com x.comÂ
T1 Energy's cell-import waiver keeps its Dallas module plant running while the Austin cell fab is built. Commerce permitted imports of up to 1.725 GW; Austin's first 2.1 GW phase targets cell production in Q4 2026. Street consensus is Moderate Buy with a $7.60 average target, roughly 3x from here. The chart marks $2.60 as the trigger, with targets of $3.93, $4.54, $5.13 and $5.92. x.com x.comÂ