Hamid
Founder & CEO of Savvy Trader/Earnings Hub, Co-Host of BuyHoldRant
A Micron beat is not priced in, because the stock trades as if $50B of quarterly revenue with $30B+ of profit were impossible. Pricing in that performance, for any company in history, would take a market cap well over $2 trillion, or a stock near $2,000. Micron again crushed expectations, and the bears' cyclical case keeps failing: the end of the cycle has been predicted for more than two years. x.com x.com x.com
Micron's revenue grew faster than its stock over the past year, leaving it cheaper on trailing earnings. Quarterly revenue rose from $11.3B to $54.2B, while the stock rose from about $198 to $878 and trailing P/E fell from roughly 24x to 11.6x. x.com
Micron's AI-driven cash generation looks outsized for its size amid market concern about debt risk. Its quarterly free cash flow has reached about $32.9B in under two years, above the peak quarters shown for Meta, Amazon, Google and Microsoft; only Nvidia and Apple have posted higher quarters, despite each being about five times Micron's size. x.com
Micron looks expensive on price-to-book at about 8x versus a historical average of about 2x, and relying on forward P/E for such a cyclical business can be dangerous. x.com
Micron's sold-out high-bandwidth memory through 2027+ and contracts already being signed for 2029-2030+ extend its earnings runway. At 5x forward earnings, it is cheaper than a year ago; its private Anthropic stake is about to be instantly rerated at Anthropic's IPO, and a new share buyback is expected to be announced Dec. 9. Micron could certainly gain 30% in three months. x.com x.com
Demand for Micron's products is through the roof, making its revenue surge only the beginning as it heads into 2027. The attached eight-quarter chart puts Q4 FY26 revenue at $54.2 billion, and Micron's gross margin is cited at 86%. A $100 billion revenue quarter could arrive in the not-so-distant future; the stock is a good bet here. x.com
Micron faces a severe crash risk from CXMT's current threat and apparent investor complacency after a euphoric high. If the Wall St Cheat Sheet fits, most of Micron's gains across 40 years, amassed in just one year, could be erased soon. Earlier, Elon Musk said Micron had been reasonable on future memory prices; memory stocks were not yet to be faded. x.com x.com
Micron deserves 10-12x forward earnings rather than 6.2x, and its latest quarter only strengthened the bull case. Revenue reached $54.23B, up 379% year over year, and EPS $33.42, up 1,003%; next-quarter guidance is $62B revenue and $38.15 EPS versus estimates of $58B and $35.92. The market fears growth and demand could suddenly stop, but no one can time when or if that happens, whether in 1, 2, 3 or 5 years. It might not deserve 20x. x.com
Micron can't meet customer demand, giving it rare visibility at a valuation of about 5x next year's earnings. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said customers are extending agreements into 2031, which gives certainty of demand and lets Micron plan capacity investments with confidence. The stock is now about $1,000, and with potential EPS beats over the next few quarters its forward P/E could be around 5, unthinkable about six months ago. x.com x.com
If Micron has only two years of decent forecasts, its limited visibility warrants a lower multiple, not a higher one. x.com
Micron's FY2028 earnings could substantially exceed the displayed $206.89 normalized EPS estimate, leaving the shares at about 3x FY2028 EPS. A beat of at least 30-50% depends on demand, pricing, margins and buybacks. x.com