Hamid
Founder & CEO of Savvy Trader/Earnings Hub, Co-Host of BuyHoldRant
Robinhood keeps accelerating its execution, yet its stock has lagged the business. Per @StockSavvyShay, since its July 2021 IPO funded accounts grew from 11 million to 27 million, assets under custody from $44 billion to $322 billion and annual revenue from $713 million to $4.4 billion, with the company now profitable, while shares are up only 74%. Its revenue is already diversified, with crypto under 20% of the total. x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood's position as the first true institution to come on-chain may give it staying power beyond a hype cycle. Hype cycles come and go, but it is too early to count Robinhood out; its presence is unlikely to disappear over the long term. x.comÂ
Robinhood's Q3 report still looks solid despite misses against tough year-ago peak crypto and equity comps. Revenue missed slightly; the EPS miss looks tied to $67M of unrealized mark-to-market losses primarily related to its RVI fund, explaining the drawdown. Its new banking feature looks frictionless: send cash by text without recipients needing Robinhood accounts, a nice Zelle alternative versus its partner bank. Robinhood is cyclical, unlike compounding SoFi, though both are great. x.com … Show more
Robinhood's earnings miss leaves its revenue vulnerable to a market correction. Revenue could shrink further if the market corrects; a better entry may emerge over the next six months, but that is not assured. x.comÂ
Robinhood is oozing free cash flow despite the less favorable market. At 27x forward free cash flow, it is an undeniable bargain, and the stock is unlikely to get much cheaper. The near-term outlook is not particularly exciting, but risk appetite will return and investors will trade aggressively again; a crypto recovery would light a spark under the business. The $185 target by end-2027 remains. x.comÂ
Robinhood is expanding from a trading app into a financial super app, and that expansion story is just getting started. x.comÂ
Robinhood's growth looks more reliant on wallet share and the market backdrop because customer and active-user growth are weak. Revenue rose 12%, accounts 7% year over year, and net new funded accounts slowed one quarter after acquisition was re-prioritized; adjusted EPS growth unexpectedly turned negative. New customers grew at a mid-single-digit rate and monthly active users fell. MAU is volatile, but needs to improve next quarter. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood's growing non-crypto businesses make its trading-app valuation look too low. Gold subscribers rose 34% to 5.2 million, platform assets reached $396 billion, and 14 business lines now each generate over $100 million annually. Overweight with a $115 target, despite a weak report: deposits fell to $15.7 billion from $22 billion and net interest income dropped 9% as rates declined. x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood is a great long-term play because its young investor base will acquire and inherit assets as it ages. Lately the market has treated it like a crypto company in the mold of Coinbase. x.comÂ
Robinhood's hard push into gambling features makes the stock tempting to sell, because management's words and actions are misaligned. Executives preach steady wealth-building and frame gambling features as wise hedges, yet the app promotes them squarely as gambling. That approach will never attract serious investors. Platform improvements have made Robinhood a winner in a brutal fintech space, and a more graceful rollout would ease the concern. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Robinhood's higher revenue and EPS make it clearly stronger than SoFi on these earnings. SoFi's post-earnings rally is unlikely to hold; its shares are headed for single digits. x.com x.comÂ