Donald Dean
Economist & Technical Analyst, Fibonacci/Gamma Trading
Meta looks cheap after Q2, with heavy AI spending the remaining overhang. It trades at 20.3 times earnings and 16-18 times forward, with a Street average target of $780, about 45% upside. Revenue rose 28% to $60.8 billion, beating estimates, while EPS of $6.18 missed on legal, severance and AI costs, and raised capex guidance means less free cash flow. A possible double bottom is forming; $520 is support, and reclaiming the $600 volume shelf would open higher levels. x.comÂ
Meta's call buying and options map support a small bullish lean for next week. A roughly $240.6K burst of November 6 $637.50 calls traded at the ask; the map showed 622.50 as a level that could send the stock higher. x.com x.comÂ
Meta's AI-driven ad growth and elevated option premiums make a November $650 cash-secured put attractive only if owning the shares at a $632.64 assigned cost basis would be welcome. Q2 2026 revenue rose 28% to $60.8B; the put offered $1,736 in premium, 45-50% implied volatility and a 6.4% cushion. Earnings are due before expiry, adding event risk. x.comÂ
Meta's planned stock offerings to finance AI growth merit a selloff in its shares. The Wall Street Journal reports up to $95 billion in financing and a potential at-the-market offering of up to $60 billion, possibly beginning in Q1 2027. Send Meta to zero. x.comÂ
Meta's early AI monetization in its core business makes the long-term upside potentially far greater than the short-term pain from its planned $95B capital raise and possible dilution. Its fair value is $1,100, and the shares are worth holding for years despite short-term moves. If Meta monetizes the infrastructure, upside is massive; even if it does not, the assets still have value. x.comÂ
Meta's earnings beat removes the immediate earnings risk from its bullish setup, with the 688 area holding on a closing basis. Q3 revenue was $64.6 billion, up 26%, and EPS of $3.83 beat estimates; Q4 revenue guidance is $73-76 billion. Wave 4 may have ended near 681; a close above the 9- and 21-day averages near 715 would confirm that count, with 755, 773 and 796 as targets. x.comÂ
Meta looks unattractive because its fines, capital raises and AI capex make the math ugly. The stock could trade back to the $500s, while hyperscalers probably have to make those raises with equity down 15-25%. Muse looks like a fad and average users may not need AI agents, matching LogicalThesis's view. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Meta's AI infrastructure financing raises the risk that a long wait for revenue and profit will keep its shares volatile. It disclosed plans to raise up to $95 billion. @amitisinvesting warns that further dilution could keep the stock stuck even if the buildout eventually pays off. Meta's selloff is still a massive buying opportunity. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Meta's multi-year bull thesis remains intact despite short-term technical weakness, making a dip to $550-$560 a re-accumulation opportunity. The stock trades below its 8-, 50- and 200-day EMAs, pointing toward ascending trendline support at $550-$560. Its ad and messaging monetization, AI-driven targeting and aggressive AI capex position it as a long-term generative AI winner, and the trend from the $520 base remains valid. x.comÂ
Meta's next-year earnings consensus of $34 a share makes a 30x forward multiple too optimistic unless it delivers a major surprise. The proliferation of $1,000 price targets also looks like a warning to get out. x.com x.comÂ
Meta's growth and earnings make its valuation appealing. It trades at 17x 2027 estimates with 17% EPS and 22% revenue growth. Its $140 billion EBITDA should make it worth more than Anthropic, which has none, though that comparison could be wrong. If distribution is king, Meta Muse could benefit from Meta's 3.64 billion daily active users, according to GuruFocus News. x.com x.com x.comÂ