Options selling with Christian
Growth Investor, Options Selling, Creator of Stock Catalysts
Cipher Mining has a lot of catching up to do if the AI trade continues, because hyperscalers need neoclouds like it during the compute shortage. It already has deals with Google, Fluidstack and others, and Google has said how much it will need to pay such companies while it builds out its own infrastructure. An acquisition by one of the big tech companies would not be surprising. x.comÂ
Cipher Mining looks appealing because its primary counterparties include Amazon, Google and an AI lab, unlike neoclouds that must also buy GPUs. It still needs financing, and some projects may have run slightly over budget. x.comÂ
Cipher's existing AWS and Fluidstack relationships answer concern that a lack of tenants will stall its infrastructure buildout. AI infrastructure is still being built and monetized despite bubble fears. After being dismissed, Cipher delivered forward returns of 18x in 2022 and 15x in 2025; its shares should find a bottom between the 0.786 and 0.887 Fibonacci retracements. x.com x.comÂ
Cipher Mining faces likely dilution from its proposed zero-interest debt given its cash flow. The $850m financing would spare cash coupons but leave repayment obligations. x.com x.comÂ
Cipher Mining has made a very underrated 24% weekly move off its $15.50 support level, the planned entry point for this setup. x.comÂ
Contracted AI compute demand makes four AI infrastructure stocks worth buying at 52-week lows. Applied Digital has a $36B backlog and expects 600+ MW online within 12 months; Cipher Mining has $8.5B+ in AI leases with payments ramping; CleanSpark has a 20-year $6.6B lease and 1.8+ GW power portfolio; CoreWeave has a $104B backlog and raised its year-end ARR target to $18.5-19.5B. x.com x.comÂ
Cipher Digital's AI hosting expansion is a leveraged bet on finishing the buildings on time and collecting rent from tenants. After an earlier $3 billion hosting deal was followed by a $1.1 billion convert, it is proposing another $850 million convert alongside a 20-year lease. The market is repricing the heavier balance sheet before it sees execution. x.comÂ
Cipher Digital's 20-year extension of its Barber Lake lease with Fluidstack and a leading AI lab lifts that site's contracted revenue to over $9 billion, per the company. It is converting bitcoin mining sites into AI data centers: Black Pearl, built for AWS, came online two months early in August, starting rent on a 15-year, $5.5 billion lease. Its pipeline spans 5.3GW across 11 sites, and the stock has 10x potential. x.comÂ
Demand for AI capacity without Magnificent Seven lock-in underpins the long-term case for Cipher Digital. The stock also looks unusually oversold in the short term, at a level not seen since 2022. x.comÂ
Cipher Mining's proposed convertible notes make shareholder dilution a more concrete risk. It intends to offer $850 million of notes to fund Barber Lake and its HPC pipeline; conversion can be settled in cash, shares or both, with final terms pending. Stock-based compensation was $57 million last quarter against $24 million in revenue, raising the question of whether management rather than shareholders captures the upside. x.com x.comÂ
Strong AI demand and hyperscaler spending make the selloff a mid-cycle correction despite neocloud financing stress. Widening CCC spreads expose leveraged firms to higher borrowing costs; US competition with China supports AI buildout. The base case is a bottom in roughly 5-7 days, then stabilization and eventually a broader reversal, though some projects may fail and valuations compress. IREN, Cipher, Nebius, Applied Digital, Micron, AMD, ASML and Intel are worth gradually accumulating. x.comÂ
