Noah
Stock Investor & Trader, US Equities
The S&P 500 is forming an expanding triangle, a sign of a market losing consensus, and has now hit its upper line for the sixth time at 7,785. If the pattern repeats, a seventh touch of the lower line would take it toward 6,100–6,200, about 20% downside. The macro backdrop is worsening: inflation at 3.4%, three Fed officials voting to hike, 42% odds of a September hike, July net job losses and extreme mega-cap concentration. Tightening drove 20–25% drops in 2018 and 2022. x.com
The S&P 500 faces a roughly 20% drop toward 6,100-6,200 because it is trading in an expanding triangle, a sign of a market losing consensus on price. The sixth touch printed at 7,785 on the upper boundary, and after a sixth touch the break is downside. Macro risks are building: inflation at 3.4%, three Fed officials dissenting for a hike, a 42% chance of a September hike, a net July job loss and extreme mega-cap concentration. The September Fed meeting is the likely trigger, as in 2018 and 2022. … Show more
US stocks may be nearing a local top that could coincide with the Fed finally raising rates, possibly at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting. The S&P 500's bull pennant breakout targets around 8,600 before then. After that, stocks could work against Bitcoin, which may see its final leg down. x.com
The S&P 500 still looks headed to 8,000 and QQQ to 780, with the 10-year Treasury yield held below its trend line and bond volatility, as measured by MOVE, still falling. VIX and oil are dropping too, and oil will likely break its rising channel toward $80. Index pullbacks to the 10- and 20-day EMAs are opportunities; a 10-year yield above 5.35% or a break above that trend line would call for caution. x.com
US stocks could see a bigger decline over the next few months, as dealers are heavily short indices and long VIX futures, though that is not a timing tool. The key S&P 500 pivot is 7,620; below it lies 7,300 June-July support and, in an extreme case, the 6,878 yearly open. Seasonally, a low usually forms in October, and an election-cycle rally typically starts before the November 3 election as hedges unwind, absent black swans. x.com x.com x.com
The S&P 500 is likely in its final Elliott Wave 5, one more push to all-time highs where everyone turns bullish and smart money sells. Breadth keeps deteriorating, momentum is fading, fewer stocks drive the rally, and valuations sit near extremes while investors price in lower inflation and Fed easing; if those disappoint, the breakout could turn into distribution. Euphoria could peak around 7,800, after which a move back toward the April lows near 6,300 becomes a real possibility. x.com
Hyperscaler credit stress and weak financials-versus-staples leadership warn of downside risk in the S&P 500 consolidation. Spreads have broken July wides, though an upside breakout is probable if financials stabilize. So far, tech weakness has lowered yields as Fed hikes are priced out, letting defensives rally and the S&P chop. If the Fed signals Nasdaq weakness won't stop tightening without better data, the tech-yield link could break in an uncomfortable, 2018-like direction. x.com x.com … Show more
US equities look vulnerable to a significant correction before another sustainable rally: 3.4% inflation, roughly $100 Brent, a 5.2% 10-year yield and just 29K new September jobs contrast with fresh index highs, while the Magnificent 7 make up 34.9% of the S&P 500. Strong AI earnings expectations and liquidity could keep shares elevated longer than expected. x.com
The S&P 500's rejection of new all-time highs after seven weeks of bearish trading, itself following nine bearish weeks, is not what a healthy market does. But $762.70 support has not broken, and institutions are soaking every dip on record buy volume. The bearish case remains qualified: the weakness may be short-term trading noise. x.com
The S&P 500 should see further upside first, in a final blow-off phase over the coming months toward 8,000-8,100, where Fibonacci extensions align, as liquidity rotates into risk assets and the crowd embraces AI-supercycle narratives. Markets are already overextended mid-term with falling volume, so taking partial profits and diversifying makes sense. After the top, widening credit spreads, labor weakness and sticky inflation should bring a correction until Fed QE sparks the reversal. x.com … Show more
The S&P 500's heavier semiconductor weighting makes its coming pullback likely larger than the 4% decline in the comparable 1995 period. Its current 16-17 week cycle looks more like November 2025 to March 2026 than the last bullish cycle, pointing to at least the lower Bollinger band in November, with a cycle low due in the month's second half. x.com x.com
