GregTheAnalyst
Independent Investor, Macro/Micro & Technical Analysis
Jefferies looks ready to crash after failing its last bounce, with the May 2008 level now resistance and the price below its 50-month and 200-week moving averages. Its chief economist is leaving to advise Treasury Secretary Bessent, and Jefferies again appears in a credit blowup: per a report @kshaughnessy2 quotes, London nonbank lender MFS faces double-pledging accusations, with Santander and Jefferies among the names involved, echoing Tricolor and First Brands. x.com x.comÂ
JPMorgan's miss on both revenue and earnings strengthens the case for avoiding bank and financial stocks. The earlier bank-index chart rollover had suggested possible profit disappointment, but the observed JPMorgan share weakness is not a near-term price forecast. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Private-credit-exposed financials look ready to short again after big rebounds, with Manulife, Western Alliance, Banc of California and F&G standing out for their outsized exposure and leverage. x.comÂ
JPMorgan should ultimately go lower, but the near term looks less favorable for a bearish bet. Q1 metals-trading earnings are likely to be very profitable, and proposed rules easing large-bank capital requirements show regulators trying to protect big banks like JPMorgan. European financials are a safer place for the bearish view for now. x.comÂ
Heavily indebted data-center and compute names, including CoreWeave, IREN, Cipher, TeraWulf, Core Scientific, Riot, MARA, Hut 8, Bitdeer and Bit Digital, are vulnerable if credit tightens next year. High-debt firms get punished in tightening, especially if a credit freeze stalls projects, and panicked markets sell everything. TeraWulf shows the risk, with a $427.6 million Q1 net loss, $713 million of quarterly cash burn and $7.09 billion of liabilities. This is a macro basket trade. x.com x.com … Show more
