Hamid
Founder & CEO of Savvy Trader/Earnings Hub, Co-Host of BuyHoldRant
Nvidia is undervalued, not the poster child of an AI bubble. Cisco traded near 200x earnings at the dot-com peak, while Nvidia trades around 20x, about a tenth of that; even after Cisco's roughly 90% crash, its P/E was about where Nvidia's is today. Nvidia just delivered 106% year-over-year revenue growth and guided next year's growth above 70%, so the AI boom is not over. Unprofitable $100 billion-plus companies are better bubble candidates. x.com x.com x.com
Nvidia is still growing into its AI valuation, unlike Cisco in 2000, which was growing nothing but a tech bubble. The comparison between today's Nvidia and 2000's Cisco cuts in Nvidia's favor because its valuation is backed by growth rather than bubble pricing. x.com
Nvidia in 2026 is not Cisco in 2000: it grows over 100% a year at far lower multiples, making it still an amazing buy and likely the first $10T company, possibly by 2028. Cisco peaked near 200x earnings, 30x sales and 176x FCF on 55% growth; Nvidia trades at 30x, 18x and 45x with 75% gross margins. Forward, it is about 20x earnings and 22x FCF, near all-time lows, and supply constraints and contracts let it guide a full year ahead for the first time. A $6T cap would not mean overvalued. x.com … Show more
NVIDIA looks close to the top of an AI bubble, with a two-year megaphone pattern signaling exhaustion of growth. Such expanding, volatile patterns historically don't end painlessly. Its roughly 22x valuation on a $4.8 trillion market cap and $216 billion profit is approaching Cisco's roughly 30x in 2000. Nvidia just raised $25 billion in debt, drawing $85 billion of orders. x.com x.com
Nvidia's valuation gives too little credit to its expected long-term earnings growth. Its forward P/E-to-growth ratio is 0.28, the lowest since late 2023; the bullish read depends on those growth expectations proving accurate. x.com x.com
Nvidia's rising revenue alongside a much lower P/E is getting hard to ignore. Its chart shows quarterly revenue above $80 billion in Q2 2026 while the P/E is around 30x, down from much higher multiples in prior years. x.com
NVIDIA could repeat Cisco's 2000 crash in 2026. Cisco was the face of the dot-com era and fell 86% from its peak even though everyone was right that the internet would change everything. NVIDIA is the face of the AI era, with the same narrative, euphoria and crowded trade, and its chart is following Cisco's path. Being right about the technology does not protect investors from being wrong about the price. x.com
Nvidia looks interesting again because rising earnings estimates have not been reflected in its valuation. FY28 EPS estimates rose about 25% in 60 days while shares stayed roughly flat; it trades below 14 times FY28 earnings with a mid-single-digit free-cash-flow yield. Exponential change is hard to grasp, and it is hard to see Nvidia not winning if the US does, though there is little capital to absorb market wobbles. x.com x.com
AI skepticism leaves Nvidia, Broadcom and Micron looking cheap on forward earnings. Their forward P/E ratios are 14, 18 and 5, respectively; the market may eventually stop doubting AI. x.com
Nvidia's AI profits are real, but its compute demand depends heavily on fragile venture funding. Per Chamath, 1% of firms account for 90% of AI spending, and 72 cents of each dollar comes from unprofitable VC-backed firms. Venture money passes through startups to Nvidia and cloud suppliers; if the next raises fail, concentrated orders could contract together. x.com x.com x.com
Nvidia is not Cisco in 2000, because its earnings support the valuation. Nvidia's forward P/E is roughly 24.57, while Cisco's forward P/E was above 196 in 2000. x.com
