Joel
Long-Term Growth Investor & Options Trader
Micron's expanded buyback and projected cash generation point to significantly more upside. JPMorgan projects over $100 billion in cumulative free cash flow from Micron, while Bank of America expects global memory-chip sales to surpass $2 trillion by 2030. Micron expanded its buyback authorization to $35.16 billion, with repurchases permitted starting December 9; DA Davidson raised its price target to $3,000. x.comÂ
Micron's fundamentals make a few red days no reason to panic. It just reported $54.2B in revenue with 87% adjusted gross margins, guided to $62B next quarter and trades around 6.4x forward earnings, with potential for a massive buyback once its CHIPS Act restrictions expire. A red day doesn't erase fundamentals, and the best opportunities are sometimes created when everyone else is panicking. x.comÂ
Micron's approved buyback adds a shareholder-return catalyst to its investment case. WealthyBeaver reports that Micron's board approved $33 billion more in repurchases, lifting the total authorization to $35.16 billion. The plan starts December 9 when CHIPS Act buyback limits end and may use up to all adjusted free cash flow. The announcement had been expected for a while. x.comÂ
Micron's AI-driven cash generation looks outsized for its size amid market concern about debt risk. Its quarterly free cash flow has reached about $32.9B in under two years, above the peak quarters shown for Meta, Amazon, Google and Microsoft; only Nvidia and Apple have posted higher quarters, despite each being about five times Micron's size. x.comÂ
Micron faces a severe crash risk from CXMT's current threat and apparent investor complacency after a euphoric high. If the Wall St Cheat Sheet fits, most of Micron's gains across 40 years, amassed in just one year, could be erased soon. Earlier, Elon Musk said Micron had been reasonable on future memory prices; memory stocks were not yet to be faded. x.com x.comÂ
Micron's sold-out high-bandwidth memory through 2027+ and contracts already being signed for 2029-2030+ extend its earnings runway. At 5x forward earnings, it is cheaper than a year ago; its private Anthropic stake is about to be instantly rerated at Anthropic's IPO, and a new share buyback is expected to be announced Dec. 9. Micron could certainly gain 30% in three months. x.com x.comÂ
Demand for Micron's products is through the roof, making its revenue surge only the beginning as it heads into 2027. The attached eight-quarter chart puts Q4 FY26 revenue at $54.2 billion, and Micron's gross margin is cited at 86%. A $100 billion revenue quarter could arrive in the not-so-distant future; the stock is a good bet here. x.comÂ
Networking, power and compute look more durable than cyclical memory in the AI buildout. Lumentum's revenue compounded year after year across the 2010s and 2020s, unlike Micron's; AWS revenue also compounded. Lumentum, Nebius, Bloom Energy and Credo should heavily outperform SanDisk and Micron from here, though AI itself remains heavily doubted. x.com x.comÂ
Micron's surging memory revenue points to a supercycle. Its segment and NAND revenue charts show a sharp recent acceleration, while the stock tests its rising 30-week average. x.comÂ
Micron's FY2028 earnings could substantially exceed the displayed $206.89 normalized EPS estimate, leaving the shares at about 3x FY2028 EPS. A beat of at least 30-50% depends on demand, pricing, margins and buybacks. x.comÂ
Micron is at its top because memory stocks peak when margins peak, well before the shortage flips to oversupply, expected by 2028. Memory is tech's most brutally cyclical business: shortage, record prices, margins and capex, then new capacity arrives at once and becomes a glut. Micron trades at record highs on record DRAM prices, with memory's biggest capex wave under construction. In past oversupply cycles it fell 90% in 2000, 80% in 2008, 50% in 2018 and 47% in 2022. x.comÂ
A memory-industry shortage adds demand support to Micron's long-term case. With next-twelve-month revenue growth estimated at 91.4% and forward free cash flow cited at 122B, Micron is the best long-term investment right now on the numbers and demand, ahead of the Tesla and Nebius alternatives discussed. x.comÂ
