Oguz Erkan
Investor, Founder of Capitalist Letters
Alphabet's search business faces disruption as AI alternatives start to replace traditional searches, even though the shift has yet to hurt revenue. Search still grew 12%, as predicted, but this may be its last double-digit result. Early Uber use in San Francisco likewise preceded taxis losing share. Alphabet's impressive cloud growth accounts for only a quarter of revenue. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Alphabet's search monopoly faces a different competitive game as agent companies build their own search tools. Google Cloud grew 103%, but that was not enough to offset disappointing ads growth. Its only path is to accelerate AI training and keep spending on capex. Search will never be the same, and the risk-reward has changed, though Alphabet remains an optimistic prospect. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Alphabet's business is bigger and more profitable across the board, while its stock is back at its March war-scare low. That makes it hard not to pour all future earnings into the stock. Quarterly revenue rose from $110B to $128B; Google Cloud growth accelerated from 63% to 103%, with $30.7B in quarterly revenue, an operating margin around 36% and profit more than tripling in a year. Search queries are growing at their fastest pace in five years. x.comÂ
Alphabet's core Search growth is slowing while AI spending surges, making the selloff look deserved despite fast Cloud growth. Search growth fell from 19% to 17% to 12% over three quarters; Search now represents just under half of revenue. The stock could fall to $250, though Amazon is the preferred buy. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Google Search's paid-click growth has deteriorated significantly, weakening Alphabet's core search business. Alphabet's 10-Q figures show paid-click growth of 13% in Q1 and Q2 2026, then 8% in Q3; cost-per-click growth was 5%, 3% and 4%, respectively. Game over. x.comÂ
Alphabet offers attractive risk/reward because its earlier equity raise suppressed the shares despite strong growth. The $80B-plus raise should suffice for now; another next year is uncertain. Search grew 17% in the prior results, while cloud revenue more than doubled in the latest. Investment losses, not the business, hit EPS; weaker free cash flow puts investors off. A search slowdown would be a warning flag, though Gemini and other businesses could soften the blow. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Changing search habits may threaten Alphabet's Search business. Personal search use has changed a lot, and that looks likely to become a broader trend. Search remains a real concern; buying more Alphabet right now looks unlikely. x.com x.comÂ
Alphabet's fast-growing Cloud business could offset pressure on Search as AI agents bypass ads and links. Cloud is already half Search's size, grew 103% versus Search's 12%, and is on track to overtake it; that makes the sell-off a great opportunity. Alphabet also owns SpaceX shares worth about $80 billion. x.comÂ
Alphabet's exceptional revenue growth and expanding margins make a discount attractive if the market offers one. Quarterly revenue reached $125 billion, up 25%; search is growing faster than YouTube ads. The disappointing result reflects a mark-to-market on SpaceX, while the earnings call sounded great. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Alphabet's search growth risks masking damage to its advertiser base. Google Ads advertiser Max Anderson says Google charges more for lower-quality clicks, weakens keyword targeting and exceeds budget caps as traditional searches shift to LLMs. This is a bear case for search, but AI capex need not fall with it: Google Cloud revenue has more than doubled, and AI spending is how Google largely defends search. x.com x.comÂ