Gabz
Stock & Crypto Trader, SuperTrend Indicator Owner
Space stocks have lost their catalyst now that SpaceX is public. For a year the basket was a bet on when the SpaceX IPO would happen; it listed Friday, up 19% at $2.1 trillion, the biggest IPO in history, and the air came out. Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Satellogic and BlackSky, green for months, have all flipped to SuperTrend downtrends. That is not the sector breaking but buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news. x.comÂ
AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and other space stocks face being dragged toward zero by SpaceX's stock drop. With SpaceX valued above $1 trillion, it can buy them out with all-equity offers, the mega-cap way, and that is already happening. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Firefly, Intuitive Machines, Redwire and SpaceX are too risky to buy at today's valuations, given the potential for a cascade decline. Index-inclusion buying may keep SpaceX and sympathy names bid for months, but in another growth bear market like 2021's aftermath they could fall hard and recover slowly even if the businesses execute, and SpaceX may eventually crash the party. They remain liked, just not worth adding; Northrop Grumman is the preferred space stock. … Show more
Investors rotating into cheaper stocks with more upside should ultimately benefit Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both have already suffered major drawdowns. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile are not buys because their sales multiples are too high, even after the selloff. Rocket Lab trades at 30x sales after a 14% drawdown, while AST SpaceMobile trades at 138x sales. x.comÂ
Space stocks lost expected support when the S&P committee rejected fast-tracking SpaceX into the index, removing forced passive buying, while funds sell tech to raise cash for next Friday's SpaceX IPO. Rocket Lab's $150 looks like the top, with a likely lower high, perhaps dropping to $100 on Monday before rebounding to $120-130. x.com x.comÂ
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab and SpaceX are the preferred space names as SpaceX is killing it right now, while AST SpaceMobile has only a very small chance of returning to its highs. x.comÂ
SpaceX, Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile all traded at irrational valuations, so a rerating lower was the only rational outcome. Another investor notes the sector was flushed right after its biggest catalyst, as investors dumped other space names to fund their SpaceX allocations. x.comÂ
Good SpaceX earnings could help Rocket Lab lead the new-space sector higher with a rally as violent as its capitulation. Rocket Lab is the sector leader outside SpaceX; its RSI is extremely oversold, the lower Bollinger band is overstretched and MACD's negative divergence is subsiding. Three upside gaps lie at $55.25-59.18, $64.22-65.71 and $73.11-74.76. The highest should fill before year-end, though the exact date is hard to predict. x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab's $3B at-the-market offering shows it needs investor cash because it has no real earnings or path to profitability, and it should have raised $10-15B while the window lasts. Selling stock at such a high valuation is the only way to sustain the next 18-24 months, and the coming SpaceX IPO will most likely be the sell event for the entire space sector. x.com x.comÂ
