For most individual investors, ETFs tracking the S&P 500 or a world index are the best way to build wealth, with at least 50% of a portfolio there. A concentrated portfolio of 5-10 stocks, mostly AI-buildout names, could work for skilled stock pickers but could also suffer a 70% drawdown, and most people lack the skill, patience or funds to handle the swings of growth stocks. x.com 

Extreme fear has historically offered strong long-term S&P 500 buying opportunities. After VIX spikes above 30, 35 and 40, average 12-month S&P 500 returns were 23%, 28% and over 30%, respectively; after spikes above 40, returns were positive more than 90% of the time. x.com 

US stocks remain vulnerable because leveraged long positions could amplify an unwind of the mania. The SPY-versus-long-Treasury trade has given back only a few weeks of its gains. x.com 

SPY's current pullback looks brief because whale accumulation remains above the level associated with mid-term trend continuation. The reading is 87.74%; it fell below 80% before both recent major crashes. Barring a black-swan event or major unexpected fundamental shift, this decline looks closer to earlier minor corrections. The stock market still has significant upside, and fear-driven discounts remain opportunities. x.com  x.com 

Berkshire Hathaway offers no edge over simply owning the S&P 500. Its supposed defensiveness does not hold up, since both fell over 50% in the financial crisis and over 30% in 2020. Investors worried about a recession can keep some cash themselves rather than rely on Berkshire's cash pile. x.com  x.com 

The S&P 500's elevated P/E masks concentration in just a few stocks, making index exposure less appealing than selective stock picking for risk and reward. Its P/E is well above the ten-year median; digging into individual constituents looks more sensible than buying all 500. x.com 

A sharp VIX spike followed by a reversal has historically favored SPY over the following weeks when VIX was at or below 25. After a 21% spike Friday and a 7% fall today, SPY's one-week return averaged 1.10% in 14 comparable events over the past decade, with gains in 12; the next-day average was just 0.07%. Could this have been capitulation? x.com  x.com 

Extreme fear suggests the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is closer to a local bottom than a local top. The Fear and Greed index reads 22, VIX is at 18, and the fund is only 2% below its all-time high. x.com 

Buying the S&P 500 as a whole is unappealing because the index forces owners to hold the bad with the good, despite Warren Buffett's long-standing advice to buy it. Plenty of its companies are speculatively valued with no margin of safety, lack predictable sales, earnings or cash-flow growth, or are stingy with dividends and buybacks. The index's initial agreement to immediately include SpaceX, which IPOs next week, makes it even less attractive; its last-minute reversal matters only so much. … Show more

Holding broad US stocks compounds returns; crash selling and overtrading destroy that advantage. Most would be dramatically richer holding quality stocks or the market for life. The S&P 500 has compounded roughly 10% a year with dividends reinvested; DALBAR's studies show investors lag by 1-3 percentage points or more annually from behavior. Random stock buy-and-hold usually fails: durable quality or broad diversification captures the few firms creating almost all wealth. x.com