ASML looks undervalued, a rare sight for this company, because its long-term AI opportunity is much bigger than the market is pricing in. AI is driving demand for advanced logic and memory chips, customers are accelerating capacity expansion, and ASML sits right in the middle of that buildout. Q2 revenue reached €9.3B with €2.9B in net income, and management raised its 2026 revenue outlook to €43B-€45B. x.com  x.com 

Physical AI's reliance on semiconductors across its technology layers could make it the next theme to drive another rally in semiconductor stocks. Micron recently echoed this view. There is still much to learn about the field. x.com 

Semiconductor trade faces a capex growth ceiling even if AI delivers what bulls expect. Spending cannot compound at 70-100% a year indefinitely, and compute per dollar roughly doubles every two years, so the same budget buys more capacity later. Today's chip valuations also demand years of 20% AI earnings growth beyond 2028: roughly 10.9 extra years for AMD, 8.9 for ASML, 7 for Marvell and 6.4 for TSMC, versus 1.6 for Broadcom and 0.8 for Nvidia; Micron needs none under the chart's assumptions. … Show more

Semiconductors could capture scarce spot compute's value if its forward curve holds. Compute trades in deep contango, while chip stocks price in little of that value; near-term moves are unpredictable. That makes the sector very bullish. The earlier lab-funding risk looks less acute: Anthropic should hold nearly $200B cash after its IPO and is operating-cash-flow profitable. Even with 2029 capex cuts, chips look cheap if future buyers do not default. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

ASML's reported inability to make enough machines for the next two years is a buy signal for the whole AI stack. Its stock still sold off despite that shortage. x.com 

Semiconductor stocks' easy-money phase is over as the sector shifts from hype to show-me-the-money. The SOX index is down over 15% from its June peak, chip funds saw $11B of outflows in one week, the largest this century, short interest is at a three-year high and earnings growth is projected to slow by 2027. Memory and logic chips remain commodity-like. This is cyclical cooling, not a death knell; the AI build-out continues, but expect more turbulence and favor companies with defensive moats. … Show more

ASML's blowout results undercut the bearish AI case, and the chip selloff that followed is a sell-the-news valuation correction, not a demand problem. Revenue of €9.326 billion beat by 5%, EPS by 10%, gross margin hit 54%, full-year guidance rose 16% and 2026-2028 shipments were raised. Oversupply fears from heavy tool orders look overdone, since tools take a long time to reach production and capacity doesn't translate linearly into qualified chips. JPMorgan sees 2028 EPS possibly above €65. … Show more

Next-generation AI systems could double wafer demand, keeping the long-term outlook compelling for semiconductor equipment makers. Applied Materials targets more than $12 billion in services revenue and roughly 40% operating margins by 2030; management expects over two points of share gains and potentially more than $5 billion in advanced-packaging revenue, driven by HBM and AI demand. Bullish on Applied Materials, Lam Research, ASML and KLA. x.com 

Semiconductors are set up for a violent, DRAM-style bust because demand again hinges on a few big customers and one theme, an AI training and benchmarking phase that will not last. NVIDIA is hurt badly if even one customer pulls back. Unlike Cisco's fungible parts, it funds custom TSMC lines, with $182 billion of purchase commitments exceeding its annual operating cash flow. Microsoft's receivables with NVIDIA jumped to about $12.2 billion, suggesting it pulled forward chips it is warehousing. … Show more

Semiconductor leaders look better placed than high-beta stocks with poor company models. TSMC, ASML, Nvidia and memory should lead the sector and belong in the buy basket, with Broadcom not far behind. The CPU basket is only a hold: much of its upside was priced in during Intel and AMD's run. x.com