Joel
Long-Term Growth Investor & Options Trader
Alphabet trades at a discount to Warren Buffett-style multiples. x.comÂ
Alphabet's earnings growth makes its valuation look attractive. It trades at 21x forward earnings and a 0.47 PEG while EPS grows 34% year over year; shares are down almost 9% year to date. Search still grows 12% and Cloud grows 103%, undercutting the concern that Search will sink the business. x.com x.comÂ
Alphabet's earnings weakened the investment case because it missed on YouTube, Search, services, subscriptions and earnings, while reporting $0 in buybacks and double the negative free cash flow of last quarter. Cloud revenue was impressive, but Alphabet is a hold here and needs to come down significantly before adding. x.comÂ
Alphabet's $80B capital raise, with Berkshire Hathaway committing $10B in a private placement, funds compute for unprecedented customer demand, and executives at Google and Berkshire likely understand that allocation better than skeptical retail investors. Unlike Meta's metaverse gamble, this is a joint effort to fund AI data-center buildout, and the stock fell only 1% on the news while still up 35% since April. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Alphabet's rapid cloud growth and diverse profit sources make it a long-term buy below 20x forward earnings. Cloud grew 103% this quarter, despite short-term fears about search and heavy spending. x.comÂ
Alphabet is one of the best companies, but not the best stock to own now, because at current prices it doesn't offer asymmetric returns. The winning stock depends on price and valuation, not just company quality, so Alphabet is worth following from a distance without exposure. @ChairmansLedger makes the same point about AI infrastructure names: he seeks the most mispriced asymmetry, not the best company. x.comÂ
Berkshire Hathaway's $10B investment in Alphabet's $80B equity raise for AI infrastructure endorses the AI buildout that bears said would fail. By participating, Berkshire is effectively saying the dilution needed to fund the next phase of AI infrastructure won't matter in the long run. The upward momentum should only accelerate from here. x.comÂ
Alphabet offers attractive risk/reward because its earlier equity raise suppressed the shares despite strong growth. The $80B-plus raise should suffice for now; another next year is uncertain. Search grew 17% in the prior results, while cloud revenue more than doubled in the latest. Investment losses, not the business, hit EPS; weaker free cash flow puts investors off. A search slowdown would be a warning flag, though Gemini and other businesses could soften the blow. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Alphabet's shrinking and negative free cash flow from excessive AI capex, which has yet to show a significant return, is driving investors away. The stock fell 7% on earnings and gapped below its 200-day and 40-week moving averages, which would be its first close below both since the tariff tantrum. x.comÂ
Alphabet's 103% year-over-year cloud growth makes its roughly 10% overnight stock drop hard to understand. That growth matters more here than what the rest of the company is doing. x.comÂ