Nike is a damaged business, not just a damaged stock, so buying the dip is a mistake; a falling price only works when the business is still growing. Sportswear, just under half of revenue, is down low double digits, China is losing ground to local brands, and guided earnings don't cover the dividend this year. Insider buying hasn't helped: Tim Cook and directors bought around $59 in December 2025, Cook and the CEO near $42 in April, and shares now sit near $32. x.com  x.com 

Nike's business is just not getting better: its products are too pricey and revenue has been flat for five years. Quarterly revenue of $11.21 billion missed the $11.33 billion estimate, EPS slipped to $0.48 from $0.49 a year earlier, and the company lowered its outlook to single-digit growth in 2027. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nike's brand concerns look priced in; stabilization, not sudden revenue acceleration, is what the speculative long needs. A few good campaigns and a return to large stores could help, though China consumers will be a drag. Short-term EPS is a poor indicator, and customers may return after trying other brands. x.com  x.com 

Nike is a brand that lost discipline and vision and is now paying for it, with another bad year guided. Revenue fell 4%, with China down 26% and Europe 5%, and Nike expects 2027 revenue to drop another 7-9% with profit falling more. After flooding the market with Jordans and lifestyle sneakers, it is cutting supply to restore scarcity and pricing power and cutting $2.5B of costs by 2031, short-term pain in hope of long-term brand health. x.com 

Nike hit its lowest level since 2014 because its turnaround is improving in wholesale but still deteriorating almost everywhere else. Wholesale grew 4% in Q4, but Nike Direct fell 7%, digital 12% and footwear 4%, while China revenue dropped 17% as On and HOKA gain share. About 900 bps of gross-margin improvement and $0.52 of the $0.72 EPS came from tariff recoveries, and FY26 free cash flow fell 33% to $2.2B. The market wants proof that Direct, digital, China and margins can recover. x.com 

Nike under $40 is getting very interesting because expectations have fallen so low, often where the best risk/reward shows up. The stock closed at its lowest since 2014, about 78% below its all-time high. The turnaround is not finished: FY26 revenue was basically flat, Nike Direct is still shrinking and China remains a major problem. But wholesale revenue grew 6% for the year as Nike rebuilds retailer relationships. This is not a call on the bottom. x.com 

Nike is not a buy while its top line keeps shrinking. Revenue fell 4% last quarter even as gross margin expanded, inventory fell 3% and North America grew 2%, per @stock_analysisx. x.com 

Nike's turnaround is looking much longer than bulls expected, and about 17x forward earnings is not cheap for a business growing low single digits. China sales fell 26% FX-neutral while Adidas' Greater China sales grew 15%, pointing to a Nike problem, not a China problem. Sportswear fell low double digits with Dunk revenue down about 50%, Jordan fell mid-teens, and most PACE savings are expected only in FY29-30; Performance grew high single digits. The must-buy price is $25. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nike's dividend yield, now high versus its ten-year history, is the new question for investors and makes the stock very interesting at these levels. The numbers have not bottomed, guidance was atrocious and parts of the business are getting worse, offset somewhat by better US wholesale. The guidance implies Nike will use some cash to fund the dividend, but it has plenty. The stock remains too expensive on earnings and too cheap on dividend yield. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nike's weak sales growth and flat operating margin leave its turnaround unproven. Brand scale and profits help, but pricing power remains unproven; dividends exceeded trailing free cash flow, while working-capital drains and short-term debt add risk. The overall model score is 43/100. x.com