DekmarTrades
Stock Day Trader & Educator, Live Trading
The DOE's approval of the final safety analysis for Oklo's Groves isotope test reactor is a good high-beta nuclear milestone, especially with Barron's flagging its first reactor going live this month. It remains project and regulatory hype rather than revenue. x.comÂ
Oklo is turning its advanced nuclear reactor plans into execution. Its Groves isotope facility in Texas reached criticality on August 5, which Oklo calls the fastest greenfield-to-criticality run for a privately funded reactor in history. Meta signed an agreement letting it prepay for power from a planned 1.2GW Oklo campus in Ohio, the first Aurora powerhouse at Idaho National Laboratory is targeted for 2028, and Oklo holds $3.0B of cash and securities. x.comÂ
Oklo's new $1 billion at-the-market offering, reported by @StockSavvyShay, is a reminder that a nuclear reactor takes 10-15 years and a lot of capital to build. Investors may not be ready for that ride. x.comÂ
Oklo is the under-followed pure play on deploying small modular reactors, the only clean baseload path that scales for AI data centers. The grid is maxed, gas turbines are booked for years, and full-size reactors take a decade to permit. Oklo has a DOE fuel award, a gigawatt-plus pipeline and Aurora in licensing. At an $11B cap on near-zero revenue, the price is the pipeline converting: low-50s if NRC slips, 80s with a firm deployment date and fuel. Negative EPS gives no floor to a delay. x.comÂ
Oklo and X-energy look poised for the biggest gains after compute, having both been selected for a $200 million Trump administration program to speed up nuclear power plants for data centers. Nuclear will take time, though, and their revenues remain far off. x.comÂ
Oklo has no revenue or operating reactors and is burning $570M in free cash flow. Its executives have also been selling shares; the stock's steep decline looks like capital markets disciplining a speculative business. x.com x.comÂ
Oklo's fundamentals keep improving while the price has not caught up, setting up a rebound from support. Its Aurora and isotope reactors reached criticality by DOE's July 4 deadline, and DOE cleared the Aurora Powerhouse safety analysis at Idaho National Laboratory, yet shares sank about 22% in June on DOE loan jitters. The chart is in a falling wedge for the third time and back at $45.83 support, which has held every time; holding it could bring a snap toward $81.50, as in the last two. x.comÂ
Jan Zuazo Pfingsten
Thematic Investor, Physical Scarcity & AI Infrastructure, Primary-Source Research
Oklo is a generational bet that could become a $200-500 billion company in 10 years if it executes modular nuclear at scale, though meaningful reactor revenue won't come until 2028-2030. Its $2.5 billion of cash covers 25-plus years of runway, the NRC accepted its design criteria in 15 days, NVIDIA is helping validate fuel, Atomic Alchemy's license enables isotope revenue from late 2026, and Meta's 1.2 GW campus and a potential Centrus HALEU venture secure customer and fuel. x.comÂ
Oklo is now rated Neutral with an $83 December 2026 target because the market prices its 15.2 GW pipeline with more confidence than its contracts support. Only Meta's 1.2 GW agreement is binding; most of the rest are letters of intent that hinge on Oklo proving Aurora can be licensed, built and run at a competitive cost. The target applies 20x 2040 EV/EBITDA discounted at 12.5%, assumes 5.1 GW by 2040 and gives fuel and isotopes no value. HALEU fuel scarcity and SMR rivals add risk. x.comÂ
Oklo is a high-conviction play because advanced nuclear is the answer to the AI energy crisis and the company is executing. It reported its first revenue, $1.2M, in Q2 2026, agreed with Meta to develop a 1.2 GW clean-energy campus in Ohio for AI data centers, and signed a letter of intent with Centrus Energy for domestic HALEU fuel for up to five Aurora reactors. The chart shows a higher low after a dip to $36.61, and options gamma clusters at the $50 strike. x.com x.comÂ