legen
Founder of InsiderWave, Politician Trade Tracking
The S&P 500 is vulnerable to a midterm-election drawdown, since history shows nasty 7-16% declines almost always come around midterms. Elevated 10-year yields and a strong dollar add risk, even though nothing looks bearish yet and rising yields have not dented the Nasdaq or mega-caps, and cheap volatility makes hedging attractive. SPY could reach $800 and still fall back to $750 within two months. x.comÂ
US stocks remain vulnerable because leveraged long positions could amplify an unwind of the mania. The SPY-versus-long-Treasury trade has given back only a few weeks of its gains. x.comÂ
Geopolitical risk is mostly a buying opportunity for US large-cap equities, because fear overshoots and then relief overshoots. The market priced in war for two months, then the S&P 500 rose 3.6% in a week once a US-Iran ceasefire landed. Retail investors who sell into fear miss the relief; the position held through the noise is the one that pays. x.com x.comÂ
US stocks face persistent uncertainty around the midterms through year-end as military-strike risk remains unresolved. Until a strike occurs or a genuine peace deal is signed, the market cannot price that risk confidently. x.comÂ
The S&P 500's two-week rally on US-Iran ceasefire hopes looks like a bounce to fade rather than chase, because macro buying pressure is missing. The Monthly BX is still dark red, which typically means a 10-15% correction over about three months, most of which has played out, so no collapse is expected. Price sits below a red fair-value band, where rallies get sold, and is pressing into the point of control, a heavy volume level acting as resistance. Losing $652 turned structure bearish. x.com … Show more
SPY's current pullback looks brief because whale accumulation remains above the level associated with mid-term trend continuation. The reading is 87.74%; it fell below 80% before both recent major crashes. Barring a black-swan event or major unexpected fundamental shift, this decline looks closer to earlier minor corrections. The stock market still has significant upside, and fear-driven discounts remain opportunities. x.com x.comÂ
Uncertain AI-capex profits and higher oil costs from Iran still threaten US stocks. The SPCX-Nvidia deal brought much-needed overnight inflows to chips and is shifting sentiment, but tech's waterfall decline will not heal with a sharp V-bottom. Be prepared for a big fade. x.comÂ
Crude oil and the XLE energy-sector ETF would be buys on a pullback because uncertainty over a real military strike could hang over the US market from the midterms through year-end. Only an actual strike or a true peace deal would settle that uncertainty. x.comÂ
The S&P 500 rally likely has a few more days worth staying exposed to, because SPY's cumulative advance/decline line is still below its all-time high. The A/D line turned up at the end of March and its trend remains positive. The Fear & Greed Index keeps climbing, though, so it may be time to start dialing back exposure. x.comÂ
Short dealer gamma could amplify SPY and QQQ selling as liquidity drains. SPY's first long-gamma strike is 745 next week, a possible magnet; QQQ has no long-gamma floor in frame, with vanna near 700. A bottom looks likelier next week than this week, with chop between. When strength returns, probably late October, easing should flood equities sooner than most expect: a strong November, stronger December and a Santa rally, with high beta leading into year-end. Its early hourly turn could reverse. … Show more