Flow God
Options-Flow Commentary
Institutions are aggressively positioning for TSMC to move higher. A $30M put seller took 9/18 puts at the $440 strike, $25 above spot, a very aggressive, very short-dated bet. The weekly chart shows wildly clean institutional accumulation and clearly inefficient pricing below the $440s. x.com x.comÂ
Large options traders are again buying TSMC, a bullish positioning signal. x.comÂ
TSMC isn't cheap despite its worst losing streak since 2022: it is up 67% in 12 months and 245% in five years, and trades 1.5-2x more expensive than average. It becomes a buy in the $300s, lightly at first and more heavily under $350. x.com x.comÂ
TSMC's 54.6% growth this month is very bullish, and a bearish stance makes little sense. @moneyinmarket points to a month-on-month decline, which does not change that view. x.com x.comÂ
Taiwan Semiconductor's above-average inflows and potential capitulation at the recent low add to its bullish setup. The stock has moved cleanly off the STL and out of the pink zone. x.comÂ
TSMC may face its 2000 Cisco moment if the 10-year/3-month Treasury spread keeps steepening instead of crashing back into inversion. If TSMC's strong-demand view is right, the spread should reinvert to extend the cycle, as in 2022; instead it is approaching +80bp after un-inverting, which signals it's really time. x.com x.comÂ
TSMC's earnings set the stage for a strong reporting season. Hold the line on TSMC despite its shares being caught in SOXX's algorithmic sell-off; StockMKTNewz reported that TSMC beat quarterly revenue and EPS estimates. x.comÂ
Taiwan Semiconductor remains an elite-quality compounder at a fair price despite its share price rise. Per @KobeissiLetter, Taiwan's market cap has tripled since 2020 to $4.14 trillion, passing the UK for the first time, driven largely by TSMC, which has surged 680% and makes up over 40% of the market. x.comÂ
TSMC looks like it has put in a blowoff top, rising even on an announcement that it cannot afford new ASML equipment. x.comÂ
TSMC's blockbuster quarter contradicts the AI bears' narrative. Revenue grew 36% and EPS 77.4%, with EPS of $4.31 versus $3.77 expected and revenue of $40.2B versus $39.7B. Capex also came in higher than expected at $15B versus $11B. x.comÂ