Palantir is overvalued, trading around 100 times forward earnings, 161 times trailing earnings and 73 times sales. x.com
Marcos Milla
Former Analyst at the Federal Reserve, ETF/Stock Newsletter Author
Palantir's valuation leaves it vulnerable to a nasty reversal. Its attached metrics show 178.8x trailing earnings, 80.1x trailing sales on an enterprise-value basis, and 110x next-twelve-month earnings. x.com
Palantir still trades at 87 times sales even after falling 20% this year. x.com
Continued improvement in fundamentals and technicals could carry Palantir to megacap scale. A $1 trillion market cap is a realistic destination for strong growth companies, and Palantir appears on that path, though its timing is uncertain. Drawdowns remain opportunities to accumulate until the thesis changes. x.com
Palantir is a bit pricey at 85 times next-twelve-month sales, even after a quarter that Jim Cramer said he liked. x.com
Palantir is still expensive even after falling about 45% from its highs, so it is a great business but not yet a great stock to add. At its $207 peak it priced in perfection, at roughly 70x 2026 sales and 230x trailing earnings; near $113 it trades at about 38x sales and 127x earnings as the business keeps executing. Interest returns near $100, with more aggressive buying in the $80-90 range or if the stock moves sideways long enough for revenue and earnings to grow into the multiple. x.com
Palantir was undervalued going into Q2, and its results prove it. Revenue rose 93% YoY and EBITDA 155%, and with estimates rising it entered earnings at under 45x NTM EBITDA, perhaps closer to 40x, too cheap for 90-95% revenue growth at 62% EBITDA margins. The sell side's 45-50% revenue CAGR for 2027-2030 looks achievable or even conservative, implying $25-30B of 2030 EBITDA or free cash flow before any acquisitions. x.com
Palantir's share price demands unusually fast cash and profit growth despite its strong business. At roughly $210, it implies 48.5% annual growth for five years; at 32% annual growth, the shares would be worth $96.64. It is a Watch, not a Buy at today's prices. Q2 sales rose 93% and cash flow after employee stock pay was $2.52 billion over 12 months, but government concentration, cancellable contracts and rising stock pay remain risks. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Palantir's roughly $500B market cap and 80x sales make it prudent to trim exposure despite continued affection for the company. Its tenfold run has already delivered substantial gains, not just the beginning; smaller speculative positions are getting crushed in this environment. x.com x.com
Palantir may be undervalued because the market values it as a software company while its opportunity is much bigger. It spans AI deployment, government contracts, enterprise adoption and mission-critical data infrastructure, and expensive stocks can stay expensive when the business keeps expanding. x.com
Palantir still looks crazily valued at 78 times earnings, and there is a reasonable chance it is partly a fraud. @CoorsLightCEO counters that it now looks reasonable if FY27 estimates hold, though not cheap. x.com x.com