Nvidia's cash could have more value invested in AI companies with strong demand but too little capital to scale, especially neoclouds that can execute. Their valuations look very attractive now, making equity stakes preferable to more buybacks or dividends despite criticism of circular deals. SpaceX may need the money less because it is already very big. x.com  x.com  x.com 

The broad AI trade is among the most undervalued markets in years on a growth-adjusted basis because demand for intelligence keeps rising. Usage of open-weight and closed frontier models keeps climbing, while GPU rental prices are up around 80% this year despite exploding supply. Nvidia, AMD and SpaceX share this demand bet as long as both lines keep rising. x.com 

Nvidia's AI profits are real, but its compute demand depends heavily on fragile venture funding. Per Chamath, 1% of firms account for 90% of AI spending, and 72 cents of each dollar comes from unprofitable VC-backed firms. Venture money passes through startups to Nvidia and cloud suppliers; if the next raises fail, concentrated orders could contract together. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Enterprise and neocloud demand is creating a second wave of AI infrastructure spending, with tailwinds for Nvidia and Super Micro. Dell forecasts 200 GW of AI data center growth through 2030, half driven by these customers, and estimates a $1 trillion AI infrastructure opportunity over the next four years. AI servers could enter a new growth phase in 2027, with higher shipment volumes and more revenue per deployment. x.com 

Premium-model inference revenue could support much higher compute pricing for AI infrastructure providers. Evercore models over $120M/MW in potential lab revenue while labs pay roughly $30-50M/MW for compute. With power and GPUs scarce, SpaceX AI, Nebius, IREN and CoreWeave can capture the biggest uplift over historical pricing if they deliver contracted high-density capacity. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's AI-cloud ambitions face a severe two-sided constraint: finding 12 GW of Rubin capacity in one year looks implausible, and even that buildout would need customers willing to rent roughly $50B of compute annually. The scale of both the supply and demand challenges makes the plan highly skeptical. x.com 

Fresh funding for AI expansion supports a continued bid for AI stocks as compute spending shows no sign of slowing. Meta committed to $95B in shareholder dilution for AI, Anthropic is set to have $200B in cash in a couple of weeks, and SpaceX got a $40B Apollo loan solely to buy more Nvidia GPUs. The Anthropic IPO might even be a positive catalyst rather than the negative one many fear. x.com 

SpaceX's AI compute buildout has more evidence of demand from big customers. Per Sawyer Merritt, Anthropic's IPO filing says it agreed to spend up to $120.5 billion on SpaceXAI compute through 2029, with payments of about $3.1 billion a month once all capacity is delivered, expected in December 2026. Either side may cancel on 90 days' notice after initial terms end in January and March 2027. x.com  x.com 

Guaranteeing AI data-center debt could eventually leave Nvidia unable to obtain financing. Per The Information, Nvidia is in talks to provide billions in guarantees on Nscale debt to develop a 460-megawatt data center; one day, its card may read "Denied!" x.com 

Nvidia's CUDA retains developers, putting it among 12 stocks that could dominate the decade ahead. Nebius's GPU rental price rise signals demand; Fabrinet and Credo supply AI connectivity. DraftKings has betting scale; Microsoft has Azure and an OpenAI partnership; Figma anchors design work; Shopify powers stores. TeraWulf pivots power sites to AI leases; Constellation, the largest US nuclear operator, signs big-tech power deals; Meta spends on AI; Uber has autonomous-vehicle partnerships. x.com  … Show more