TransMedics' long-term story stands despite a roughly 60% stock drop, because its organ transplant model is hard to replicate. It sells the machines and also handles retrieval and transport with its own aviation fleet and clinical teams. Margins are compressed by deliberate heavy investment, alongside regulatory issues and a lingering short report. About three-quarters of the TAM remains in the US, Europe is opening through Italy and PAD Aviation, and kidney transplants could double the TAM. … Show more

TransMedics is due for a re-rating as it becomes a fully integrated logistics network for organ transplants, not just a device maker. Its 22 aircraft flew nearly 9,000 missions last year, supporting about 26% of US transplants. It targets 10,000 US cases by 2028 and 30,000 globally by 2032, helped by a kidney platform, and projects revenue rising from $605 million to $2.5-3 billion in four to five years. It is high risk, high reward, with a possible 100%+ rebound in two to three months. x.com  … Show more

TransMedics now looks weak, and weak names are not worth touching regardless of how cheap they look. The market is selling on falling operating margins; rising costs come from R&D and clinical trials, which is healthy, but there is more to it than margins. TransMedics is not passing fuel costs fully to customers, covering only part with a flat fee, and it is now offering cold-storage transplants, shifting from running both trial arms itself to offering the service. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com