Say No To Trading
Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management
Alphamin Resources is worth holding through a factor rotation out of metals into energy, collecting dividends while waiting for an actual re-rating. It could take a 40% haircut alongside other miners in a down scenario, so hedging the position is preferable to selling it. x.comÂ
Glencore and Alcoa may be the miners to buy while selling most of the others, based on how commodities have performed year to date and since the start of the conflict. x.comÂ
Albemarle, a lithium play, shows a well-formed uptrend channel after pushing off support, and falling oil prices and easing rates should give it a better macro backdrop. It is also seeing outsized call option flow. x.com x.comÂ
Almonty's only upside lies in excellent execution, and the tungsten thesis has to play out all the way. EQR, by contrast, could multiply simply by catching up and being discovered by the market. A reply from another investor adds that Almonty is very expensive at this stage. x.comÂ
Rare earth and critical mineral names MP Materials, Energy Fuels, Critical Metals and United States Antimony have pulled back into a good buying zone after a big run, as attention shifts toward physical AI and robots. The Trump sons just invested in a tungsten company, and SemiAnalysis is flagging how important rare earths will be over the next few years. They remain weak short term. MP is the safest, with a government investment and its role as Apple's largest rare earths supplier. x.comÂ
MP Materials risks repeating Molycorp's boom-and-bust history, since the deposit has been a financial disaster since its discovery, and this time may not be different. @JonahLupton argues rare earth demand could double or triple, with MP earning $1 billion-plus of EBIT by 2030, and that Molycorp's failure came over a decade ago under different management. x.com x.comÂ