Divergent Capital
Private Investor & Writer, Capital-Light Businesses & Special Situations
Cameco is the most interesting pure-play uranium producer thanks to good cost-curve positioning and a history of surviving pricing downturns. It also has exposure to conversion and to enrichment through Global Laser Enrichment, plus the optionality of a Westinghouse IPO. A post the author replies to calls Cameco the best company in the space on assets and management, while noting that Global Laser Enrichment is unproven and valuation is the only knock. x.com x.comÂ
Cameco's CEO said in a recent fireside chat that the nuclear renaissance is still very early and that uranium prices do not reflect actual supply and demand. Cameco covers everything except enrichment, which it is watching closely. The stock has not closed a week below its 30-week moving average since last year, a strong trend that points to more upside, and indicators have reset near a breakout; a weekly close above resistance is the next step. x.comÂ
Nuclear power is the long-term answer to AI's energy needs, best owned in tiers by risk. Constellation, with 20-year Microsoft and Google contracts, and BWX Technologies, a 2.6 book-to-bill reactor servicer, offer steady 15-30% a year. Cameco, Centrus, Oklo and X-Energy target 2-5x; Oklo and X-Energy are pre-revenue bets on 14GW and 5GW pipelines. Uranium Energy, US uranium independence, ASP Isotopes, HALEU enrichment for SMRs, and Ur-Energy, pure uranium leverage, are 10x-or-zero bets. x.comÂ
The suppliers beneath the big nuclear deals going to Constellation Energy and Vistra get paid while the utilities get the headlines. GE Vernova supplies nuclear equipment, turbines and grid gear; Cameco uranium, fuel and Westinghouse technology; Centrus US enrichment and HALEU for the coming SMR boom; BWX Technologies nuclear components and reactor manufacturing. Oklo is an SMR developer and future fuel customer, while Fluor and Quanta Services add construction and power-infrastructure exposure. … Show more
Nuclear stocks could create generational wealth for early investors, with six names covering different parts of the build-out. Vistra sells existing nuclear power, including 1,200 MW to AWS from Comanche Peak for 20 years. Oklo's small reactors run on spent fuel. Cameco sells uranium and owns 49% of Westinghouse. BWX Technologies is among the few firms cleared to build nuclear parts. NuScale holds the first US SMR design approval yet trades under $9. Centrus has a $3 billion enrichment backlog. … Show more
Rising uranium prices and the Westinghouse IPO, which retail has largely not been tracking, make the uranium sector very attractive right now, and uranium names are already running. x.comÂ
Uranium Energy is a steal as a debt-free US uranium producer, and it is the kind of company a hyperscaler could buy to lock in power. Uranium is the best 24/7 power there is, needing no sun or wind. The shares trade around $9 after being above $20 earlier this year. x.comÂ
Cameco is a slightly steadier 5-10 year nuclear holding than Centrus Energy because its earnings are more stable across the whole value chain, while Centrus could still return more if SMRs and HALEU grow faster than expected. Cameco owns top uranium mines, long-term contracts, fuel services, Westinghouse and GLE laser enrichment; Westinghouse is already contributing, with AP1000, AP300 and maintenance work potentially growing through 2027-2029. Valuation is high; actual contracts will decide. … Show more
Cameco is the more attractive holding today, while USA Rare Earth may offer higher five-year returns as a US government-backed rare earth platform. Cameco already produces, has cash flow and long-term contracts, low bankruptcy risk, though a 5-10x is unlikely. USAR secured $1.6bn of Commerce Department support, won DOE separation funding, plans a $1.2bn magnet plant and gains production assets via Serra Verde. It has no production or cash flow yet; 2028-29 commercialization is the real test. … Show more
Cameco is the preferred uranium name over Energy Fuels as the sector leader. Energy Fuels looks too volatile and is still loss-making, making it a poor choice for holding a commodity stock over a long time. x.comÂ
Uranium faces a 10-20-year structural shortage, not a short cycle, and Cameco's reach across the nuclear value chain extends the benefit beyond price. Goldman Sachs projects about 20 new US reactors, restarts and longer reactor lives through 2045, with a 32% supply deficit. Fuel is only 5-10% of plant operating costs, so utilities prioritize securing supply, lifting contract prices. Cameco spans mining, conversion, fuel services and Westinghouse. New mines or policy shifts could ease the gap. … Show more
