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AAON is a favorite HVAC stock and one of the best long-term compounders, rising over 20% a year for 20 years, and jumped 43% on earnings today. There is speculation that Amazon's proprietary data-center liquid cooling uses AAON, which should lift the stock if confirmed. It is volatile around earnings, so a 20% drop next time would be a chance to buy. x.comÂ
AAON is quietly turning from a traditional HVAC maker into an AI infrastructure play through data center cooling, as the AI capex bottleneck shifts beyond compute to cooling and power. This quarter it beat EPS estimates by 64% and revenue by 30%, raised FY26 revenue growth guidance to 40-45%, and posted a record backlog with improving margins. An 18-month weekly base, a high-volume earnings gap and strong institutional buying add to the case. It is overlooked next to Vertiv and Modine. x.comÂ
AAON is one of the most attractive earnings gappers because data center demand has pushed its backlog to a record $2.1B. It beat and raised, with a 65% EPS surprise and a 29% revenue surprise, and lifted its FY26 revenue growth outlook to 40-45% from 18-20%. x.comÂ
AAON offers data-center cooling exposure growing more than twice as fast as Vertiv at the same forward P/E: its BASX data center brand grew 216% last quarter and is now half the company. AAON trades at 30.2x forward earnings, growing 55-60% with a $2B backlog up 98%, versus Vertiv at 31.8x growing 23%. Its record-low multiple reflects costs at a new Memphis plant not yet full, while BASX margins rose to 30%. It is the earlier, riskier name, with three customers and a plant to fill. x.comÂ
Amazon's AWS growth remains strong despite slight earnings misses. AWS revenue rose 39% year over year in Q3. Increased 2027 capex could still weigh on the shares in the short term, even if demand continues to rise. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Amazon at $250 is the most obvious buy in the market because AWS's faster growth shifts its mix toward its highest-margin business, so earnings should grow faster than revenue. AWS is the largest cloud provider, adds more absolute revenue than any rival, and grew 37% in Q2, its fastest in 18 quarters; BofA expects 40% in Q3. AWS already generates 58% of operating income, a bigger margin upgrade than cloud offers Microsoft or Alphabet. Amazon's capex meets demand that already exists. x.com x.comÂ
Modine Manufacturing is becoming a pure-play AI cooling company as hyperscalers pay upfront to lock in its factory capacity through 2029. Per @hntrbrkmedia, a leaked codebase named Google as the hyperscaler behind Modine's $4B agreement, which carries $165M upfront, and Modine has billions more demand from Amazon, Crusoe and others. Spinning off the legacy automotive segment via Gentherm sharpens the focus. Data center sales are up 70-80%; watch how fast ramp-up margin drag fades. x.comÂ
Modine Manufacturing is a pure play on data-center thermal management, and its November 18 investor day could send it higher if it confidently sets big 2028-29 targets. It already cites two hyperscalers and one neocloud as customers, and which hyperscalers they are does not matter. Its valuation, which had grown stretched along with Vertiv's, now looks more intriguing than ever. x.comÂ
Modine's cooling efficiency turns scarce data-center power into sellable compute, supporting demand for its equipment. Cooling uses 10-30% of site power; its machines deliver roughly 15-20% more cooling per watt than rivals. Separately, management's public probability buckets and customer timeline match a still-unconfirmed leaked pipeline; applying the reported conversion odds implies about $2.3B in FY2027 data-center revenue, above the top of guidance. Supply remains constrained. x.com x.comÂ
AirJoule could matter far more if its technology works at scale: it uses waste heat to pull moisture from air, producing water and making cooling cheaper for AI data centers. Early tests show up to about 40% energy savings versus desiccant wheels, though this is unproven at scale. It has run data center pilots, works with GE Vernova, BASF and Carrier, and has $35M of cash and no debt, enough through 2027. Meaningful revenue is not expected until 2027, and many firms never get past pilots. x.comÂ
Per Truist, AI data center capacity grows from 24GW to 100GW by 2030, and every watt must be converted, stored and cooled before a GPU runs, paying firms between grid and chip. DC-DC conversion is the layer to watch, as rising density makes each efficiency point worth more: Monolithic Power, Vicor, Infineon, TI, Analog Devices, Renesas, onsemi. Panasonic appears in six layers and Delta in four, paid more than once per rack. Eaton, Vertiv, GE Vernova, Schneider and ABB bring power in. x.comÂ
