Burak Finance
Head of Analytics, Growth Investor, PLTR/NBIS/RKLB
Nebius has much less interest-rate exposure than CoreWeave despite being priced in the same neocloud bucket. Q2 interest expense was $45M at Nebius versus $640M at CoreWeave and $68M at IREN; the chart says a 100-basis-point rise adds about $30M quarterly for CoreWeave, per company guidance. Nebius also looks cheaper now than in May 2025: its stock rose 4x while ARR rose 12x, from $249M to $3.0B. Chamath named Nebius among the neocloud economic winners last month. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Nebius director Arne Grimme's continued buying is a bullish insider signal for the stock. His latest purchase was Monday at $153.96. x.comÂ
Another Nebius director purchase adds to the insider-confidence signal amid the share-price decline. The reported purchase was about $122,000 for 770 shares near $159 each, following earlier director buying. x.comÂ
Heavy AI-related borrowing with little to show for it is pressuring Oracle, IREN and Nebius shares. These stocks are beginning to trend lower. x.comÂ
Long-dated call buying and $150 put selling suggest institutions are positioned for upside in Nebius into 2027, a stronger bullish read than Marvell. Unusual Whales data show over $25 million in two call blocks, though one may be a roll, and over $12 million in $150 puts sold. The 19% two-day bounce lacked confirming options inflows, so Nebius could retest $170 before Nov. 10 earnings, with a roughly 18% implied move. x.comÂ
Insider purchases make SoFi, Grab, Nebius and Oracle favorite buys because their executives and directors have committed their own money at prices above today's shares. SoFi CEO Anthony Noto bought $2.25M at $17.29 versus $14 now; Grab's CEO and COO bought about $30.9M, with shares at $2.80 versus $2.89 for the COO; Nebius director Arne Grimme bought $50K at $169.99 versus $165; Oracle director Stephen Rusckowski bought $3.48M at $139.35 versus $126. x.comÂ
Nebius's recently signed higher-margin deals are predominantly with pre-revenue neolabs, making it aggressive to project a few small, short-term contracts' economics across all available capacity for years. Short-term economics are very attractive now, and Nebius management has better insight into demand, but assuming all these customers renew at similar or better terms indefinitely seems unrealistic. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Large upside bets in Nebius calls add an options-positioning signal to its conditional rebound case. About $598M sits in January $300 calls. Holding $170 keeps $180 by October 30 and $200 by November 13, after November 9 earnings, in view; step aside below $165. x.comÂ
Nebius looks cheaper against a year of stronger execution, leaving room for its shares to rise. EV/current ARR fell from 57x to 14x as quarterly revenue rose from $105M to $582M and adjusted EBITDA moved from -$21M to +$236M. The 5GW figure is a year-end contracted-power target, not live capacity. Per Polymarket, Dutch government AI plans could favor Amsterdam-based Nebius. Delivery still needs capital and power; Nebius borrows at about half CoreWeave's cost and gets customer prepayments. x.com … Show more
Nebius is a short as it proposes a $4.50 billion private offering of convertible senior notes, per @AIStockSavvy. x.comÂ
Nebius looks attractive because active accumulation is clear despite a four-month decline of 40% from its all-time high. The correction may not be finished, but the buying volume supports accumulating through it. x.comÂ