Firefly Aerospace likely has pretty good risk/reward here because successful execution could reward investors. It remains very unproven in a space industry with zero margin for error, so that upside depends on execution. x.com 

Firefly Aerospace could be the next Rocket Lab, trading at 12.5x forward EV/revenue versus Rocket Lab's 43x despite lunar capability Rocket Lab lacks. It is the only private company to land cleanly on the Moon, and SciTec defense software is 40% of revenue. 2026 guidance of $435M means 170% growth, with 80% under contract, $893M of cash and three more Blue Ghost missions worth $487M. As SpaceX turns to the Moon ahead of its IPO, Firefly is the only proven lunar surface vendor. x.com 

The selloff in smaller space stocks after SpaceX's IPO is an opportunity: it was mechanical rotation into the new benchmark, not a rerating, as Rocket Lab was sold the week it joined the Nasdaq 100. Satellites bill monthly for years while rockets get paid once; AST SpaceMobile stands out with approval and launch cadence. SpaceX is the core holding, Rocket Lab's Neutron the second-mover bet; Firefly, Virgin Galactic and Momentus are lottery tickets or survival cases. Suppliers are ballast. x.com  … Show more

Firefly Aerospace is growing fast across rockets, lunar landers and AI-enabled missile defense software, and it has been selected for the Golden Dome program. Q1 2026 revenue rose 45% to $80.9M, with full-year guidance of $420-450M and a $1.3B backlog. It is the only commercial company to have launched to orbit on 24-hour notice. x.com 

Firefly Aerospace's sell-off looks overdone after a 56% drop last month, and returning space momentum could lift it further. Rocket Lab's acquisition of Iridium and AST SpaceMobile appearing to win Japan's $1 billion J-LEO award have revived the sector, though Firefly is probably not as good as either. x.com 

Rocket Lab, AST SpaceMobile, Firefly, Intuitive Machines, Redwire and SpaceX are too risky to buy at today's valuations, given the potential for a cascade decline. Index-inclusion buying may keep SpaceX and sympathy names bid for months, but in another growth bear market like 2021's aftermath they could fall hard and recover slowly even if the businesses execute, and SpaceX may eventually crash the party. They remain liked, just not worth adding; Northrop Grumman is the preferred space stock. … Show more

The orbital economy is far too large for only SpaceX to win, making space stocks the easiest 100x opportunity yet. By 2050-2070, every business on Earth could have a counterpart in space; some public companies may fail, but the few winners could create enormous wealth. The easy money is over, so AST SpaceMobile, Firefly Aerospace, Rocket Lab, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, MDA Space and SpaceX belong in a separate retirement account that is never traded, not a price-action trade. x.com 

Space stocks demand attention, with Firefly Aerospace this week's featured chart. x.com 

Space demand remains strong, but setups are uneven. Commercial and government demand is accelerating, making space strategic for decades. Voyager and Redwire have very strong setups, though a Redwire retest is worth waiting for; Rocket Lab reclaimed its two-year trendline after great earnings but must still confirm. AST SpaceMobile failed to reclaim its weekly 50-period average despite great earnings and now faces it as resistance, a poor risk/reward; Firefly and Intuitive Machines look bad. … Show more

Firefly Aerospace has two growth engines, space commercialization and accelerating defense spending, backed by high revenue visibility. NASA lunar missions drive recurring demand for its Blue Ghost lander, smallsat constellations need dedicated Alpha launches, and its SciTec unit supports missile defense, including Golden Dome. Its $1.3B+ backlog, over 60% government, covers 80% of 2026 revenue of $420-450M, and in-house rockets, landers and AI software make it a one-stop mission provider. x.com