Oh Come On!
Investor, Venture Capital Background
Meta Compute, Meta's planned resale of excess AI compute, is incredibly bullish because it limits the downside if AI spending overshoots. Meta can take startups' money, favor clients with access to the Meta group, and run CoreWeave-style round-trip deals with assured demand, as its algorithms drive users to those customers. Any price is pure upside on an avoided cost, which should hurt rivals' profits more than the market expects. Finding buyers for overbuilt capacity is a good thing. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Google's advertising business is losing ground to Meta and others, while Cloud, including TPU hardware sales, has not yet delivered the growth driving its AI transition. The shift from search to an AI-infrastructure "shovel seller" has not succeeded yet, so a bullish turnaround case still requires waiting for stabilization before considering a bottom. x.comÂ
Meta looks unattractive because its fines, capital raises and AI capex make the math ugly. The stock could trade back to the $500s, while hyperscalers probably have to make those raises with equity down 15-25%. Muse looks like a fad and average users may not need AI agents, matching LogicalThesis's view. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Meta's AI infrastructure financing raises the risk that a long wait for revenue and profit will keep its shares volatile. It disclosed plans to raise up to $95 billion. @amitisinvesting warns that further dilution could keep the stock stuck even if the buildout eventually pays off. Meta's selloff is still a massive buying opportunity. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Efforts to penalize Meta make its shares unattractive to own. Vmaxpax raised possible further legal exposure if allegations in the Arizona case that Zuckerberg and Sandberg lied prove true; that could mean death by a thousand paper cuts. x.com x.comÂ
Meta's heavy spending raises questions about how it will earn a return even if its core business improves. Quarterly free cash flow fell from $13.2 billion in March 2026 to $1.7 billion in June and negative $1.2 billion in September. x.comÂ
Meta's early AI monetization in its core business makes the long-term upside potentially far greater than the short-term pain from its planned $95B capital raise and possible dilution. Its fair value is $1,100, and the shares are worth holding for years despite short-term moves. If Meta monetizes the infrastructure, upside is massive; even if it does not, the assets still have value. x.comÂ
Alphabet's businesses beyond search are why it will lead the real AI boom. Google Cloud, DeepMind and Waymo broaden its reach, and its $900 million SpaceX investment is now worth $85 billion. Fear emerging as the shares fall is an opportunity; a decline toward the buy zone is welcome, even as Q3 capex has taken a large hit out of free cash flow. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Meta shareholders face severe dilution from Zuckerberg's expected announcement as the global macro backdrop deteriorates. Moving earnings a week ahead of other hyperscalers looks like a way to announce the dilution first. x.comÂ
Meta's voluntary move is bullish because it expects to profit from it. Its massive debt capacity remains untouched and is increasing. x.comÂ
Meta's next-year earnings consensus of $34 a share makes a 30x forward multiple too optimistic unless it delivers a major surprise. The proliferation of $1,000 price targets also looks like a warning to get out. x.com x.comÂ