Redwire is now less attractive because of a combination of macro conditions, drone market dynamics, management and the opportunity cost versus other ideas. Its revenues are also just too lumpy, which outweighs the case that the space business on its own remains strong. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Redwire is heavily diluting its investors again, nothing new for a management team that cannot be trusted with shareholders' money. x.com 

Redwire could bounce near term once AE Industrial Partners' share overhang clears, though it is not a fundamental bullish story. AE has sold 70.1 million shares in the open market since Q4, and a final 21.5M block placement should clean them up. Once capital-markets desks finish flipping the discounted block over the next 2-3 days, the stock could perform well; AE still holds its preferreds. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Redwire's persistent cash burn and repeated share issuance weaken its investment case despite $13.8m of National Guard drone orders. Training soldiers on its Stalker drones may build familiarity, but operating losses and share expansion threaten shareholder economics. x.com 

Redwire's run has outpaced its fundamentals: it has cool projects and engineering, but a terrible management track record on margins and dilution. After doubling from $9 to $18, its market cap is now about twice its prior all-time high, which makes it a name to scale out of into the $20s and the SpaceX IPO. There are some early signs of a turnaround in Q1, so the next step is to watch whether the company is truly evolving. x.com 

Redwire is a buy on a pullback, because Wall Street will not let the space-sector narrative cool before SpaceX lists on June 12. The sector correction is not over, but a dip in Redwire to its daily 20-day EMA near 17.3, filling the 17.5 gap, would be the place to buy heavily and hold through SpaceX's listing day. x.com  x.com 

Redwire has absolutely zero moat, which rules it out as a long-term space holding. As @TheFoxRadar notes, it lacks clear unique capabilities, and several companies do the same thing. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Merlin Labs' real-time short interest has hit an all-time high of 4.6M shares with the borrow rate still around 37%, building the supply setup further. Short interest has climbed steadily from 3.1M on May 21, even though PIPE holders became free to sell when the resale registration went effective April 17. x.com 

Redwire is a no-brainer. x.com 

Redwire's new $500 million at-the-market offering, a large dilution for a $3.5 billion company, shows CEO Cannito can't be trusted to be financially disciplined. Redwire has good technology, and AE Industrial Partners' exit helps, but management has hurt shareholders many times. Per its filing, proceeds may fund working capital, debt repayment, acquisitions and R&D. x.com  x.com  x.com