Say No To Trading
Public Markets Investor, Opportunistic Buying & Cost-Basis Management
Leidos does not have good odds of beating the S&P 500 as a buy-and-hold, since AI has made the next decade or two for government IT too hard to predict. As a mean-reversion trade it has good odds, but short-term or long-term capital gains taxes likely push returns back below simply holding the S&P 500 in a taxable account. Its book-to-bill is good, but leverage is high. x.com x.comÂ
Tyler Technologies trades at 34x GAAP EBIT, not inexpensive for roughly 10% aggregate growth, and AI is unlikely to change its story in the next few years. Its view of AI is the most muted of any public SaaS company, perhaps rightly given slow government buyers and its ongoing cloud transition; management calls AI a tailwind, not a big one. Long run, AI could make copying its software cheaper and pressure pricing, while cautious local governments and brutal go-to-market give it time to respond. … Show more
Intel, Dell, Broadcom and Palantir have a real tailwind as US policy and capital both flow into domestic AI infrastructure. The government owns about 10% of Intel, whose advanced-packaging push could challenge TSMC in final AI chip integration. Dell's AI server revenue rose 757% to $16.1B with a $51.3B backlog. Broadcom's AI revenue grew 143% to $10.8B with about $165B of committed backlog. Palantir's government revenue rose 66%. Their suppliers may hold more asymmetry. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Leidos remains an attractive name to own. x.comÂ
Lockheed Martin is the straightforward defense buy, with a 3.2x book-to-bill. The stock fell last quarter because capex rose to meet very high demand, a dumb reaction. @kaizen_cap adds that money from awarded contracts flows over multiple years, so peak awards and revenue recognition may come in 2027-2028 even with a flat budget. x.com x.comÂ
