Moderna has almost 40% downside to its average analyst price target of $119.56, which makes the sudden rush to buy it hard to explain. x.com 

Moderna is a stock to bet against. x.com 

Moderna could get explosive above $200 as anyone who shorted last week's valuation downgrade has to cover. The shakeout on that downgrade was a killer opportunity, and the stock is now back over $200. x.com 

Moderna's approaching October 24 data release at a Madrid conference makes some pre-event profit-taking likely. After the release, the stock could be $400, $200 or $40; the outcome is unknown. x.com 

Moderna remains unattractive despite forced Nasdaq-100 index buying: quarterly revenue is $145M against a $782M loss, while shares trade around $200. Citi rates it Sell with an $80 target. x.com 

Moderna could rise further with strong call flow showing, but it is getting close to a top expected in late October or early November; take profits on the way up. x.com 

Moderna generates one-tenth of Bristol Myers Squibb's revenue, making their nearly equal valuations hard to justify. x.com 

Moderna's customer options positioning was not bullish, and the stock subsequently flushed 20%. WizOfOps described the top 10 trades as only modestly bearish, with no solid consensus among the customers dominating the flow. x.com 

Moderna's oncology franchise has been repriced by the Merck-partnered INTerpath-001 melanoma vaccine trial, a watershed moment. Argus upgraded the stock to Buy with a $180 target, noting shares remain more than 70% below their old highs, and Moderna closed an upsized $2.6 billion convertible note to fund oncology growth. The stock is consolidating in a tight pennant after its biggest gap up in years; a move above $156.13 targets $161.37, then $176.66. x.com 

Moderna looks expensive even under a bullish scenario. A base model values Covid, flu and RSV at $10B, oncology at $15B and the platform at $5B: a $30B market cap, or $75 a share versus $135, about 45% downside. Even $10B of oncology sales by 2035, one of the best pharma launches ever, at 8x sales and a 10% discount rate gives about $120. The CMV trial failed, norovirus is at risk, rivals are developing mRNA flu vaccines, and BofA's raised $170 target looks unjustified. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more