Stone Fox Capital
Founder, CIO & Portfolio Manager of Stone Fox Capital
Super Micro's work with SpaceXAI could be large: per Reuters via @wallstengine, it is moving full speed ahead on a gigawatt-scale AI data center with Nvidia GB300 systems, and its CEO teased a surprise Christmas gift. Elon Musk says another 220k GB300 come online next week, 220k in November and possibly 220k more by late December, roughly 660K GPUs connected by year-end, likely the gift the CEO alluded to. x.com x.com
Super Micro's guidance for 75% growth in fiscal 2027 looks conservative given more than $60 billion of new orders in fiscal Q4, though more measured growth that avoids an equity raise is probably better. Per Wall St Engine, the FY27 guide is $65-72B against $52.5B expected, and Q1 revenue guidance of $14.5-15.5B tops the $11.68B estimate. Q4 revenue of $11.1B missed, but adjusted EPS of $1.70 beat $0.96 as gross margin rose 800bp to 17.5% on a richer enterprise mix. x.com
Meta's unmet AI demand pays its bottleneck suppliers. Super Micro's $19.5B quarterly outlook and under 8x forward earnings point to a double. CoreWeave's Meta deals total $35.2B; it should easily top $100. Builders say nearly all new sites use Dell or Super Micro; Dell could easily double. Micron's demand is off the charts at 5x forward earnings. Sources say Vertiv's gear is sold out for 2-3 years. VivoPower has 2GW+ potential in 5-7 years. Digi Power X has a $1.1B Cerebras deal. x.com x.com … Show more
Super Micro should benefit as data centers buy the servers that house Nvidia's AI chips. Its quarterly sales outlook rose from $15B to $19B; the stock is 36% below its high and trades at 8x next year's earnings. It is a double from here. x.com x.com
Super Micro is burning shareholder money with a $7B equity and equity-linked financing. The company says proceeds will fund components for about $39 billion of AI server orders from more than 20 customers, but needing outside money to fill orders is either a sign of a very good business or what it hopes investors will believe. x.com x.com x.com
SpaceX's exclusive use of Nvidia GPUs and other supply constraints make Musk's 13-20 GW operational compute forecast for end-2027 too high. A substantial buildout is still incredibly enticing, but reaching that scale likely requires cheap capacity from struggling neoclouds, mostly through capacity deals and some acquisitions. Its attractive $40B off-balance-sheet GPU lease deal is only a drop in the bucket of the debt needed. Capacity can still grow quickly over time. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Enterprise and neocloud demand is creating a second wave of AI infrastructure spending, with tailwinds for Nvidia and Super Micro. Dell forecasts 200 GW of AI data center growth through 2030, half driven by these customers, and estimates a $1 trillion AI infrastructure opportunity over the next four years. AI servers could enter a new growth phase in 2027, with higher shipment volumes and more revenue per deployment. x.com
Super Micro Computer's roughly $7B equity and equity-linked financing plan to fund AI server component purchases is a short-term overhang on the stock, even though it signals strong demand. The market reads it as shareholder dilution, further proof the business is highly capital intensive, execution risk in turning a huge backlog into profitable cash flow, and growth funded with new paper rather than internal cash. Broader AI hardware weakness played a smaller role. x.com
Increased AI-platform demand is lifting Super Micro Computer's preliminary revenue above guidance. Supermicro estimates fiscal Q1 2027 revenue of $18.5B-$19.5B versus $14.5B-$15.5B guided, and gross margin of 12%-12.5% versus 10.4%-10.8% guided, primarily due to customer and product mix. No one is bullish enough on the stock; $50+ by year-end is in view. x.com x.com x.com
Financing announcements point to more accelerator demand, supporting semiconductors. About $200bn in announced Meta, Anthropic/Broadcom and SpaceX/Nvidia financing likely drives $400bn in XPU purchases. Data centers burn cash until lit, then cash flow 20-40% annually; AI spend rising from 0.1% to 0.5-1% of current payroll could balance the buildout if agents replace roles. Sustainable token demand is the bet, but smaller local models are the bigger risk, though not an immediate concern. x.com … Show more
Super Micro Computer's $7 billion equity raise is heavy dilution to fund AI spending, and the market is never going to like a raise that large. The stock sold off on the news, fitting a broader weakness theme around dilution for AI spend. x.com x.com x.com
Supermicro's sharply higher preliminary revenue and margin guidance suggests AI server orders are still being pulled through despite capex-fatigue fears. Q1 FY2027 revenue guidance rose from $14.5-$15.5B to $18.5-$19.5B, and gross margin guidance to 12.0%-12.5%. Scale into fatigue pullbacks, but these are unaudited figures; customer concentration, tariffs or a weak November 3 report could reverse the case. x.com
