Convequity
AI Value-Chain & Enterprise Technology Research
Broadcom's integrated optics, electronics and packaging could lower custom-chip system costs because separate suppliers defend their margins. At similar valuations, it is preferred to Nvidia and has more room to beat expectations. Google TPU v8 shipments are estimated at 4.0M in 2026 and 9.1M in 2027, assuming Broadcom supplies the remainder after MediaTek's allocation. Anthropic financing adds value only if chip profit exceeds likely support payments and capacity costs. x.com x.com
A confirmed Anthropic IPO would modestly reduce Broadcom's credit overhang by making Anthropic more likely to keep paying for leased Google TPUs. Up to $100 billion of new equity could help service the financing vehicle's debt, lowering the chance Broadcom must cover part of lenders' losses on about $42 billion of senior debt. The obligation's size would not change, and a failed listing would raise the chance it is called. x.com
Broader adoption of custom AI silicon could benefit Broadcom and Marvell. OpenAI reportedly plans to expand its use of Google's TPUs beyond Nvidia GPUs, and Google TPUs are coming to Oracle Cloud in 2027. Both are potential tailwinds for custom-chip suppliers. x.com
Google TPU adoption could broaden the AI hardware opportunity beyond Nvidia, with demand reaching custom ASICs, HBM, packaging, optics and testing. Per The Information, OpenAI reportedly plans to buy Google's TPUs and is hiring compiler engineers, but no purchase is confirmed. Broadcom, SK hynix, Samsung, Micron, TSMC, Coherent, Lumentum, FormFactor and Teradyne could benefit. x.com
Broadcom is depending on a massive Anthropic and OpenAI ramp over the next two years as Google becomes less and less important to it. CEO Hock Tan gave exact gigawatt figures for every customer except Google, which got only a vague tens of billions, a bad sign that MediaTek has taken share. x.com
Broadcom's custom AI chips and networking could drive earnings beyond what its valuation implies over 2-3 years. It is the favorite semiconductor opportunity now, preferred over NVIDIA without replacing it. AI semiconductor revenue is projected at about $58B in FY2026, $115B in FY2027 and potentially $230B in FY2028. At about 17x FY2027 consensus adjusted earnings, risk/reward is compelling if growth materializes; customer commitments add visibility, but delays and financing remain risks. x.com … Show more
Google's growing TPU business needs HBM, adding demand for Micron, SK hynix and the memory basket. Google Cloud rose 103% to $30.7B, with backlog reportedly $561B; UBS models more than double TPU shipments in 2027. Micron should be up double digits on this, not down 5%. Samsung has LTAs with 10 major customers and is negotiating with 10 more, targeting 60-70% of capacity under contract. x.com x.com
Broadcom's top growth driver, Google TPUs, can be captured elsewhere, such as through Vicor, while its OpenAI exposure through the Jalapeño chip is unwanted in light of today's news, even if that proves a nothingburger. Broadcom should still do great and may be worth re-entering later, but the capital can find better ways to outperform it. x.com x.com
Broadcom's custom AI chips for major customers position it as a clear winner in the continuing AI buildout. Kris Patel's case that efficiency and total cost of ownership leave Broadcom room to gain share from incumbent Nvidia is persuasive. Broadcom has not seen peers' upside and is 30% below its highs, making the stock an opportunity. x.com x.com
Broadcom's custom-chip share gains should support long-term growth even if AI spending grows more slowly than expected. Custom chips are clearly gaining share and likely to keep doing so. At 10.9 times 2028 earnings using the low end of management's guidance of at least $30 EPS, Broadcom looks very compelling here. If that guidance holds and growth remains reasonable beyond 2028, the stock is clearly undervalued. x.com
Broadcom's roughly 60% margin looks unsustainable because its custom-chip design role is not irreplaceable. Google's TPU v8i has already succeeded, and it is being handled by MediaTek, whose margin is at best in the 30% range. That undercuts the claim that customers need Broadcom's design capability to compete with Nvidia, especially when Broadcom's margin is not far from Nvidia's own. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
AI infrastructure bottlenecks could give eight stocks as much as 18x upside. Nvidia supplies frontier-model GPUs; Broadcom and Marvell supply custom silicon and networking; TSMC makes advanced chips; Micron supplies sold-out HBM; Vertiv provides power and cooling; Palantir monetizes enterprise AI; Alphabet spans TPUs, research, cloud and apps. The list tracks where AI infrastructure spending is flowing. x.com x.com
