Honeywell Aerospace has always been a weak business, with a worse mix than better aerospace names such as HEI, TransDigm, Howmet and GE. With so many good aerospace businesses available, there is little reason to own it. @pitandhummus agrees that, underwritten standalone after the spin-off, it looked overstated relative to much better businesses like GE. x.com  x.com 

Honeywell is still undervalued with its spinoffs coming, including the upcoming aerospace separation. x.com 

Boeing, alongside GE, is preferred over the Honeywell Aerospace spin-off because it has more credibility in aerospace. Honeywell Aerospace reiterated guidance two months ago, then missed and cut its organic growth outlook by half, and its management needs time to mature. x.com 

Honeywell's breakup should unlock value, because its ~17x blended EV/EBITDA is a conglomerate multiple on aerospace and automation businesses that deserve different valuations. Aerospace spins out with a 27% EBITDA margin, second only to TransDigm among peers, while automation is dragged down by the conglomerate wrapper. At peer-median multiples the parts are worth about $307 a share, roughly 39% above $221.50, with a $187 bear case and $439+ bull case. The June 3 aerospace investor day is key. … Show more

Honeywell looks like GE 2.0, worth about $265 billion in parts against a $135 billion market cap, with its aerospace spinoff coming in June. The core business is worth about $156 billion at 6.5x its $24 billion of revenue, aerospace about $98 billion at 7x $14 billion, and its 55% Quantinuum stake about $11 billion if Quantinuum is worth around $20 billion. x.com  x.com  x.com 

HEICO is a rare compounder because owner-managers with a decentralized culture keep growing niche, FAA-approved aerospace parts. The Mendelson family owns about 20%, and the stock has compounded about 22% a year since 1990. Q2 revenue rose 25% to $1.38B and EPS 49% to $1.66, both beating estimates. Planes fly 30+ years and need parts throughout, in an aerospace market projected to grow from $330B in 2023 to $662B by 2033. The stock is always expensive; low $40s would be a lucky entry. x.com  … Show more

GE Aerospace earns most of its money servicing a huge installed engine base, and record air traffic keeps that base turning. Engines sell at up to 70% off, while shop visits bring up to 70% of lifetime revenue; services were about 70% of 2025's $42B revenue, with a $210B backlog. At 43x earnings versus a 37x five-year average it is not cheap, a premium backed by the end of the conglomerate discount, margins and visibility. A correction would come only with a normal general market pullback. x.com  … Show more

Howmet Aerospace is an obvious short because its valuation is insane for a cyclical industrial. Its oligopoly in turbine blades, where only three companies can produce at scale, is already well known and priced in at about 100x free cash flow. Even a bull case implies only a 2.7% free cash flow yield on 2030 numbers, far less attractive than Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia or Salesforce. x.com  x.com