KLA has almost no upside even in a best case. Beating 2027 Street EPS estimates of $5 by 100% and applying a 30x multiple, a material premium to its history for the growth, leaves only 1.5% upside. x.com 

KLA and its chip-equipment peers are best bought at significantly lower valuations during a down cycle, so downside risk ahead matters more than near-term upside. KLA is only being built up slowly to fix an underweight versus Applied Materials, ASML, Lam Research and Tokyo Electron, with more added if it falls further, and no concern if it jumps back to $250 in the meantime. x.com 

KLA gains as more complex AI chips require more inspection before they ship. 3D stacking, advanced packaging and 2nm processes multiply checks in a market KLA says it owns almost entirely. Revenue rose 29% and EPS 39%; the next-quarter revenue guide of $4.7bn exceeds the $4.54bn expected, showing the promised second-half acceleration. Overweight, $300 target. x.com  x.com 

Onto Innovation is one of the best electronics plays in fiber optics and communications. It is profitable with growing sales, a 0.6 PEG, raised estimates and top ratings with large price targets, and it has returned 5x the Nasdaq-100 over the past year. x.com 

Onto Innovation looks good around current levels because it is cheaper than many of its peers. The comparison comes in reply to @Opu61659893, who argued that a structural shift toward heterogeneous integration and advanced packaging should favor names like Amkor, Onto and Entegris, and that an AI capex unwind would slow but not kill it. Amkor could also work from here, though ASE is a little cheaper. x.com 

KLA is a structural near-monopoly in semiconductor process control, not a cyclical equipment vendor, with about 56% of process control and over 85% of optical wafer inspection. It combines pricing power, rising process-control content per wafer as chips grow more complex, and a recurring services base whose lifetime revenue per tool exceeds the tool's original price. Whichever AI application wins, chipmakers must pay the KLA toll as long as they demand smaller, faster chips. x.com  x.com 

Semiconductor equipment makers such as Applied Materials, KLA and Lam Research look like shorts, a view Michael Burry now shares: per @zerohedge, Burry says he shorted Applied Materials, along with Tesla, Nvidia and, for the first time, Caterpillar. x.com 

Onto Innovation looks cheap against its earnings, trading at 31x forward earnings versus the roughly 38x chip-equipment makers usually get. Applying 38x to next year's forecast $9.95 a share, give or take 12%, puts fair value at about $333–423, versus $308.30 now. The case leans on that forecast, with forward EPS 102% above trailing, and rests on valuation levels from reported earnings and estimates, not fundamental work. x.com 

KLA looks cheap against its earnings: at 30x next year's earnings versus the roughly 38x chip-equipment makers usually get, it sits about 9% below the low end of a $224–$285 fair range. That range is 38x next year's $6.71 EPS, give or take 12%, and leans on the forecast, which is 83% above trailing earnings; on trailing earnings it trades at 56x. This is a valuation read only, with no fundamental work. x.com 

Topco Scientific is cheap at about 15x earnings because it is a decent company riding a tailwind, and it still has legs after starting to run. It is Shin-Etsu's primary agent for semiconductor materials such as silicon wafers and photoresists in Taiwan and parts of China, and has a silicone JV with Shin-Etsu. Management expects double-digit revenue growth this year, with exposure to CMP slurries, water treatment and advanced packaging. Such companies tend to outperform with half the volatility. … Show more