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Korean Growth & Space Investor, RKLB/TSLA/PLTR/SPCX
Robinhood benefits from demand for speculative products in increasingly uncertain, unequal times, and its prediction-market push adds more. It is discussing a partnership with Crypto.com that would bring Crypto.com's yes/no prediction products directly onto its platform. SpaceX's successful IPO has also stoked retail FOMO that could carry into later IPOs. x.com
Robinhood's prediction-market growth can support revenue regardless of crypto sentiment because event contracts, including sports betting, are less boom-and-bust than crypto. Its Q3 event-contract revenue reached $173 million, or 12.2% of total revenue, versus $120 million from crypto trading. x.com
Robinhood's expansion beyond brokerage is more valuable than its current metrics show. Interactive Brokers has little room to expand beyond brokerage, while SoFi looks more like a complete bank and is unlikely to expand much further in offerings or internationally. Trouble at Binance could also drive a flight to quality toward Robinhood. x.com x.com x.com
Robinhood may capture less of the prediction-market boom than expected as Kalshi takes more of the growth. Robinhood's event-contract revenue rose sixfold to $173 million, overtaking crypto revenue, which fell 55%; Kalshi says its fourth-quarter revenue is on track to surpass Robinhood's. Kalshi's newly announced $40 billion valuation sharpens the comparison. x.com x.com
Robinhood's Q3 report still looks solid despite misses against tough year-ago peak crypto and equity comps. Revenue missed slightly; the EPS miss looks tied to $67M of unrealized mark-to-market losses primarily related to its RVI fund, explaining the drawdown. Its new banking feature looks frictionless: send cash by text without recipients needing Robinhood accounts, a nice Zelle alternative versus its partner bank. Robinhood is cyclical, unlike compounding SoFi, though both are great. x.com … Show more
Robinhood's record revenue and growing prediction-markets business support a near-term recovery in its stock after earnings. Q3 revenue reached $1.42B, crypto revenue of $120M beat the $114.1M estimate, and prediction-markets revenue rose sixfold year over year, though GAAP EPS missed at $0.51 versus $0.55. CEO Vlad Tenev said Robinhood plans to ramp support for Chain builders, bolstering the case for more ecosystem growth. x.com x.com
Robinhood's earnings miss leaves its revenue vulnerable to a market correction. Revenue could shrink further if the market corrects; a better entry may emerge over the next six months, but that is not assured. x.com
Robinhood's growing prediction markets, options and Gold subscriptions make the $90s one of the most exciting times to buy. Q3 event-contract revenue reached $173 million, up over sixfold, options rose 31% to $399 million, and Gold subscribers reached a record 5.2 million. Crypto revenue fell 55% year over year to $120 million, and Dr. Crossroads reported misses on revenue and EPS; Robinhood remains a great buy as its international reach and banking services expand. x.com x.com x.com
Robinhood has a seat at the table while prediction-market rules are still being written, and prediction markets already generate more revenue for it than stocks or crypto. Robinhood was in the room at the White House crypto meeting where Trump praised prediction markets; Kalshi and Polymarket were not. x.com
Robinhood's weather betting rules it out as an investment. SoFi is the preferred alternative. x.com
Robinhood could benefit from a crypto rebound if yields and oil/war concerns resolve and the midterms pass. It is starting to look interesting again under $100 and is the safest, more diversified way to play that move. x.com
