Nu Holdings' growth under Lula makes today's selloff look absurd. On a TTM basis since Q1 2023, revenue rose 270% and net income went from a $180 million loss to $3.61 billion, or $0.74 EPS; having done so well during his term, it should be fine going forward. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nu and MercadoLibre's biggest secular-growth advantage is resilience to electoral and macro shocks. Nu hit 139 million customers and $1 billion quarterly net income through Brazil's recession, impeachment and pandemic. MercadoLibre survived the dot-com crash and devaluations; Mercado Pago has nearly 78 million monthly users and credit growth above 90% year on year. With regional e-commerce growing 15%-20% annually, their value through 2027 depends on adoption and delinquencies, not one election. … Show more

Nu's 33% ROE is not proven until it survives a full credit cycle, because a bank's underwriting is only tested when borrowers stop paying. Per @sytaylor, Q2 revenue rose 39% to $5.9bn and net income topped $1bn. The open question is what happens to that ROE when unemployment rises, payments are missed, credit losses climb and money gets more expensive. Brazil's slowing economy and rising NPLs are not the same as a full cycle; until then the reported ROE is somewhat fake. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Nu Holdings' superior business model will win over the long term regardless of politics. Under Lula, its Q2 2026 presentation shows customers rising to 139 million, revenue per customer to $17, the efficiency ratio falling to 20%, and quarterly net income reaching $1.06 billion; Lula has since been reelected. x.com 

Nu Holdings' consistent EPS growth during Lula's presidency supports its three-to-five-year business outlook despite the election result. At $12.20 it trades at roughly 10.2x forecast FY27 EPS against 27% expected EPS growth, or about 0.37x PEG. A different result likely would have changed the immediate market reaction, but not where the business is headed. x.com 

Nu Holdings' upcoming earnings look unlikely to be well received if the market does not reward Inter & Co's results, since the two have historically traded similarly around earnings. Both operate in the same credit cycle, but Nu has a much lower share of secured lending, putting it at a credit-risk disadvantage, though it is more diversified across countries. x.com 

MercadoLibre and Nu Holdings have massive runways and have thrived across political backdrops, so they do not need tax cuts or deregulation to keep winning. Both have performed extremely well in Brazil under Lula since 2023, even in a fragile macro backdrop. The election-driven selloff left these cream-of-the-crop businesses at lower multiples, and more near-term selloffs are possible. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Brazil's political developments have driven a selloff that makes Nu Holdings a dip opportunity. NU is down 19% amid the market's reaction. x.com 

MercadoLibre already covers Latin American consumer-finance exposure, so there's no need to own Nu, which is even harder to truly understand. Nu is all finance under foreign laws and culture, very difficult for a US investor to grasp, and MercadoLibre's business segments are hard enough. Given the disadvantage in analyzing international stocks, it is better to own only what can be truly understood. x.com 

Nu Holdings' US entry targets people from Latin America now living there, rather than direct competition with SoFi or Robinhood; entering the US matters much more than Brazil's election. After Lula's reelection, Nu opened down 21% and was testing its yearly lows. This dip is likely a great long-term buy. x.com  x.com  x.com