Babyfolio
Software Engineer, AI Infrastructure Investor
Nebius's Token Factory customers validate its value proposition in helping companies train and run AI at scale. Revolut, Prosus and Sword Health use the service. Nebius looks set to keep building and acquiring services that can add margin or improve customer experience, as Eigen and Tavily did. x.comÂ
Access to capital is one of Nebius's biggest competitive advantages as neocloud funding tightens. Elon Musk says debt markets have almost entirely shut out operators without substantial non-AI-data-center revenue in recent weeks. That warning is 100% true: most neoclouds probably cannot raise funds, and smaller ones with weak balance sheets will get crushed. Nebius remains a confident bull case. Musk's attacks make financing easier for SpaceX and harder for competitors. x.comÂ
Nebius's token-factory service is growing quickly and gives it a chance to join the cloud providers, though the service is still small today. Unlike bare-metal rental, token-factory work is a high-demand, high-margin business; Nebius has that offering while the other neoclouds discussed do not. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Nebius can build for superintelligence without defending legacy businesses, unlike Google as Search and ads underperform. Those cash cows remain highly lucrative, but their relative importance is likely to keep declining and could eventually become a statistical error; Google must still optimize them for today's investors. Nebius's TD SYNNEX partnership now extends from North America to Europe, adding a major AI Cloud distribution channel through a firm serving over 150,000 customers worldwide. … Show more
Nebius's recently signed higher-margin deals are predominantly with pre-revenue neolabs, making it aggressive to project a few small, short-term contracts' economics across all available capacity for years. Short-term economics are very attractive now, and Nebius management has better insight into demand, but assuming all these customers renew at similar or better terms indefinitely seems unrealistic. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Nebius could be one of the few neoclouds to survive and thrive in a shakeout because it can finance expansion while weaker rivals struggle. Its new $3.5B Citi facility bolsters capital access; Nebius says prepayments on roughly 70% of Q2 deals covered 50-60% of related capex. Its integrated cloud and NVIDIA collaboration strengthen its platform; Palantir may bring enterprise demand but has yet to yield revenue. The Citi facility matures in 364 days; delivery and returns remain risks. x.comÂ
Nebius's $40B-plus customer commitments and funding resources make its growth seriously underappreciated, despite financing risk. Q2 revenue grew 454% to $582M; Microsoft and Meta contracts total $29.4B, with another potential $15B from Meta. Against roughly $5.7B of Q2 capex, Nebius had about $8B cash, expects over $9B in 2026 customer prepayments and subsequently raised about $5.75B in convertible notes. It is one of the more compelling long-term AI infrastructure opportunities right now. … Show more
SpaceX's planned tenfold neocloud expansion and tightening financing could pressure Nebius. Musk says debt markets have nearly shut for companies without substantial non-AI-data-center revenue, implying consolidation among the 200-plus neoclouds. Nebius looks less appealing than SpaceX, and picking a battle with Elon is not attractive. x.com x.comÂ
Cheaper AI tokens increase usage, which pushes up GPU prices as each dollar buys more intelligence. That is extremely bullish for AI infrastructure companies including Nebius, whose stock looks completely disconnected from its fundamentals, data, tailwinds and management commentary. x.comÂ
Nebius looks cheaper against a year of stronger execution, leaving room for its shares to rise. EV/current ARR fell from 57x to 14x as quarterly revenue rose from $105M to $582M and adjusted EBITDA moved from -$21M to +$236M. The 5GW figure is a year-end contracted-power target, not live capacity. Per Polymarket, Dutch government AI plans could favor Amsterdam-based Nebius. Delivery still needs capital and power; Nebius borrows at about half CoreWeave's cost and gets customer prepayments. x.com … Show more
Nebius's integrated AI cloud offers a substantial long-term opportunity beyond simply controlling powered land as training and inference demand expands. It builds data centers and GPU clusters and runs networking, storage and customer software; Microsoft and Meta have multi-year commitments. The correction after a 10x rise is unfolding, but deeper price targets have not been reached; the next 6-12 months could offer a more attractive entry than near the highs. x.comÂ
Arkady Volozh's track record as a builder is a meaningful part of the conviction in Nebius. Starting from importing computers, he co-founded Yandex in 1997, grew it to dominate Russian search, listed it on Nasdaq and reached a roughly $30bn valuation. Rather than retire, at 60 he returned to lead Nebius, turning Yandex's remaining international operations into an AI infrastructure business, combining decades of software and network-infrastructure experience with continued drive. x.comÂ
