Alphabet is a winner from the current AI turmoil, because a pause lets Google catch up after falling behind with Gemini, backed by its profitable ad business. x.comÂ
Colin Tedards
Founder of The Investor Channel & Equity Empire
Alphabet's revenue estimates for the second half of 2027 are probably too low, as Google ramps TPU versions and partners to show investors immediate AI returns. Broadcom spreads its limited CoWoS allocation across many customers, so Google is adding Marvell and AMD, which have increased commitments, to get more TPUs. Google is also set to boost revenue with a large volume of outside TPU sales. x.comÂ
Alphabet's slowing Search growth and expected negative free cash flow are an overreaction because its next AI monetization wave and infrastructure buildout support long-term growth. AI Mode ads are expanding internationally, Gemini has passed 1 billion users without ads, and Google is accepting lower Cloud margins to secure third-party compute. Analysts expect FCF to recover sharply in 2028 as AI investments generate cash. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Alphabet is unlocking another $1 trillion of addressable market with the launch of its Gemini agent for businesses. CEO Sundar Pichai introduced it to more than 700 Google Cloud customers as a single, universal agent for work that holds all of a company's business context. x.comÂ
The race to win AI is keeping Alphabet on a reckless spending path despite the damage to its share price. The expectation that spending would moderate has been wrong for a year; winning still takes precedence over the financial consequences, and a course correction has yet to arrive. x.comÂ
Alphabet's AI-mode ads could move the needle, giving the stock a tentative upside bias despite search uncertainty. Search supplies $39b of $41b in quarterly segment profit, but its revenue growth slowed to 12% and will likely slow to 10% in Q4. Queries remain healthy; Alphabet says AI queries are mostly additive. Cloud revenue grew 96% year over year. At 18x a slightly above-consensus 2027 GAAP EPS estimate for over 30% operating profit growth, the stock remains a tough call. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Alphabet offers attractive risk/reward because its earlier equity raise suppressed the shares despite strong growth. The $80B-plus raise should suffice for now; another next year is uncertain. Search grew 17% in the prior results, while cloud revenue more than doubled in the latest. Investment losses, not the business, hit EPS; weaker free cash flow puts investors off. A search slowdown would be a warning flag, though Gemini and other businesses could soften the blow. x.com x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Alphabet's AI Mode monetizes less effectively than traditional Search, potentially threatening its Search business. AI drove the fastest Search query growth in five years, yet Search revenue growth slowed to 12%; defending Search makes even greater AI investment necessary, not optional. Google Cloud grew 103% year over year to a $123 billion annual run rate. The report could not have been better for the AI infrastructure trade, but its risks are bearish for Alphabet's stock. x.comÂ
Alphabet remains fundamentally strong because revenue rose 25%, Cloud grew 103% to $30.7B with record margins, and search queries reached a five-year high. Ads grew 12% instead of 17% expected, while 2027 capex rises again, so the market is repricing it from a cash-printing ad company into an AI spender. x.comÂ
Alphabet's AI inflection is plainly visible, yet the market keeps underrating it, as it did with Nvidia before its inflection. Per @aleabitoreddit, Gemini reached 950M monthly users from 750M in February, demanding heavy internal compute; per @Aktiehedonist, Google Cloud revenue grew 82% with operating income up 212%, a $514B backlog and operating margin rising from 20.7% to 35.6%. The muted market reaction to those numbers is laughable, and the long-term winners are those buying AI now. x.com … Show more
Alphabet's earnings weakened the investment case because it missed on YouTube, Search, services, subscriptions and earnings, while reporting $0 in buybacks and double the negative free cash flow of last quarter. Cloud revenue was impressive, but Alphabet is a hold here and needs to come down significantly before adding. x.comÂ
Alphabet's businesses beyond search are why it will lead the real AI boom. Google Cloud, DeepMind and Waymo broaden its reach, and its $900 million SpaceX investment is now worth $85 billion. Fear emerging as the shares fall is an opportunity; a decline toward the buy zone is welcome, even as Q3 capex has taken a large hit out of free cash flow. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ