Jordan
Long-Term Stock Investor, Compounding & Portfolio Construction
Bitcoin's capped 21 million supply and growing institutional adoption give it upside while it is still early in its adoption curve. Spot ETFs, corporate treasuries and sovereigns are adopting it, it hedges currency debasement, and its fall from over $123,000 to about $62,000 is perhaps an opportunity. For holders with a long horizon who can sit through 80% drawdowns, a small 2-5% allocation has historically been among the best risk-adjusted ways to lift returns. x.comÂ
Bitcoin gets more attractive the further it falls, since it is driven by momentum, hype and supply and demand, and this is the part of the cycle to accumulate and wait for it to return to favor. Anyone willing to buy at $120,000 should be buying at $60,000. It should be worth more in 5, 10 and 15 years, though its fundamentals are arguable and it merits only a small exposure next to stocks or property. x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com x.com … Show more
Bitcoin could draw big institutional money once it gets a real slot in bank model portfolios; a bullish research forecast alone is not enough. JPMorgan projects 10% annual returns over 10-15 years, ahead of US large-cap stocks at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%, but excludes Bitcoin from its main risk models because its links to other assets are unstable. Bitcoin could top $100,000, but keep exposure small: JPMorgan expects 55% annual volatility and models an 11.2% annual loss in its bad case. x.com x.com … Show more
High interest rates curb leveraged Bitcoin speculation while new investment opportunities compete for limited capital. AI companies are taking on heavy debt, SpaceX recently went public and Anthropic is preparing an IPO; many beaten-down AI stocks may offer a better chance of doubling than Bitcoin. With Bitcoin below $80,000, $70,000 is more likely than $90,000 from here. x.comÂ
Bitcoin is the land of the digital age: a fixed 21 million supply that technology can't reproduce, and the fourth engineered form of money in 5,000 years. It competes not with the dollar but with $900 trillion of property used to store wealth, without taxes or upkeep; capturing 10% of that pool means 60x. Compounding at 30% for 20 years, below its historic 50%, puts one coin at $15M by 2046; $10-20M is a central hypothesis, not a prediction. It demands a 20-year minimum hold. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Bitcoin's quantum-key concentration risk may be survivable over a sufficiently long horizon because even a government capture of Satoshi's coins need not be existential. Satoshi holds about 5.2% of supply; putting those and other stranded coins in one entity's hands would damage distribution and shake confidence, but gold has survived large government-held concentrations. This is uncertain: a 90%+ down candle might be needed to kill Bitcoin, while a committed holder base could rebuild it. x.com … Show more
Bitcoin's valuation looks stretched relative to network use, raising the risk of selling pressure. Its market value has risen faster than active addresses, lifting the NVM ratio while address activity has not kept up with price. This is a valuation warning, not a definite top like 2021 or 2025, nor a signal that price must fall immediately; it could keep rising with NVM high. x.comÂ
Bitcoin has room to rise as the wave of early holders' coins coming to market at $100K and above is over, in my view. Far more of those coins came to market at those prices than expected; Bitcoin remains a beach ball held underwater. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin should still rise over time because its supply is finite, unlike other crypto that will never replace the cash flows companies earn for shareholders. Derivatives now make bitcoin's supply seem infinite too, though that may be short term. The rest of crypto is a waste of time, as Zcash's 50% crash shows: per @BullTheoryio, an Orchard privacy pool bug undetected since 2022 could have allowed counterfeit ZEC, and its privacy design makes it impossible to know if any was minted. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's ETF floor may keep a continuing bear phase range-bound rather than end it. The dashboard assigns 55% to a $52-85k institutional range and 30% to a cyclical bear reaching $40-55k by Q4 2026-Q1 2027; only 9% goes to an $85-150k extension if macro conditions clear and flows revive. Bitcoin must hold about $85k into year-end or clear $100k this year before the bearish phase can be called over. x.comÂ
Bitcoin could gain new demand from a USD-income market worth trillions because Bitcoin-backed preferreds may offer fixed dividends above equity, real estate and bond yields even as share prices fluctuate. From IPO through October 9, STRC and SATA traded at or above $100 on just 16% and 24% of days; income stays fixed if dividends are paid. Issuers can use proceeds to buy BTC. Bitcoin and this income market could grow faster than traditional assets without those assets crashing. x.comÂ
