Stone Fox Capital
Founder, CIO & Portfolio Manager of Stone Fox Capital
Rumble's slide into the $7s ignores a known deal, now that Anthropic is revealed as its mystery compute customer. Per The Information, Anthropic signed a six-year, $13.7B agreement to lease AI compute from RUM Group's Maysville, Georgia data center, which has 120 MW of secured grid power, against just $40.4M of Q2 revenue. x.comÂ
Rumble could highlight its Northern Data AI cloud business aggressively, given past talk of a $16 billion spinoff of the Taiga Cloud unit. Northern Data reportedly planned that spinoff when its own market cap was about $1.5 billion in July 2024, and Rumble's prospectus for the acquisition centers on power and Nvidia GPUs. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Alphabet's AI capex payback is being repriced, making its post-earnings decline more than a one-day mood swing. Guidance and cloud and AI margin commentary are the near-term tests. If growth continues but the multiple compresses, the risk is duration in mega-cap AI, not a collapse in technology growth. x.comÂ
Rumble's management keeps chasing trends through heavy share dilution, making it hard to trust. Its Tether crypto deal diluted shareholders by 100 million shares and its Northern Data acquisition for data centers by 120 million. It is now offering a counterparty 50 million shares via warrants struck at $0.01 just for a commercial deal to buy its GPU services. x.comÂ
Fresh funding for AI expansion supports a continued bid for AI stocks as compute spending shows no sign of slowing. Meta committed to $95B in shareholder dilution for AI, Anthropic is set to have $200B in cash in a couple of weeks, and SpaceX got a $40B Apollo loan solely to buy more Nvidia GPUs. The Anthropic IPO might even be a positive catalyst rather than the negative one many fear. x.comÂ
Broadcom's stronger AI business looks cheap for its growth, making it one of the best buys in the market right now. AI chip revenue rose 221% to $16.7B last quarter, yet the stock trades at 19x forward earnings and a 0.35 PEG. Management sees AI revenue near $115B in fiscal 2027 and would raise that outlook if customers secure more land and power. Anthropic is on track to be its largest custom chip customer next year. Wall Street's $529 average target implies about 60% upside. x.comÂ
Rumble is highly likely headed toward zero rather than back to the 25x ARR valuation @blubercap mentions. x.comÂ
AI-exposed semiconductors face near-term demand risk as Anthropic's revenue growth slows. Monthly additions fell from $10B to ~$2-3B, though October may improve and one-off headwinds contributed. The AI selloff is not irrational amid rates, debt, politics and supply-chain risks. Despite long-term optimism, a short-term bull case needs an Anthropic IPO or OpenAI fundraise, calmer rates and debt funding, blowout cloud earnings with EPS upgrades, and new applications reviving token monetization. … Show more
TeraWulf stands out among bitcoin miners pivoting to AI data centers because its massive 20-year Anthropic deal gives it real legitimacy, and some capacity is already energized, moving it beyond pure hype. Plenty of execution and buildout risk remains before that partnership produces, and the chart is losing its uptrend line, suggesting more short-term chop. Long term, it should do well if the buildout goes well and the AI revolution is real. x.comÂ
IREN's reported Anthropic cloud deal is unlikely to sustain a stock pop because investors look past the brand halo to capex and dilution. Every stock with an Anthropic announcement gave back its gains, and neocloud compute deals do not seem to be driving re-ratings lately, regardless of terms. x.com x.com x.comÂ
TeraWulf deserved to rise on its Anthropic deal, and Sharon AI on a possible deal using its existing Australian data center footprint, unlike IREN, whose move is pure speculation with no physical footprint in Australia. Holding through the market's short-term flushes is the hard part of owning them long term. x.comÂ
