Stone Fox Capital
Founder, CIO & Portfolio Manager of Stone Fox Capital
Payoneer is worth far more than Nuvei's roughly $2.75 billion, $7.40-a-share cash buyout, and agreeing to the deal shows management does not understand the stock market. Dave traded at $6 for over a year in 2023 and now trades at $300. Payoneer is too small to face regulatory problems; the real issue is the low price. x.com x.comÂ
Payoneer is worth far more than the roughly $2.3 billion including debt that Nuvei is reportedly in advanced talks to pay, given how much net cash it has. The stock was trading at just 5x EV/EBITDA, so the company should laugh at such an offer, though too many listen to fee-seeking advisers. x.com x.comÂ
PayPal is better off sold, because management has been unable to use the company's data while Stripe and Advent can. Even at Stripe's $60.50 acquisition price, most PayPal investors will still be in the red; only those all in at the bottom would make about 50%, while most AI names have risen much more. Selling losers is the better path. x.com x.com x.comÂ
PayPay is not worth chasing at its $11.8B IPO valuation: by US standards it is normally valued, not a screaming buy. The Japanese payments, investing and banking super app earned about $248M on FY2025 revenue of about $1.9B, up 26%, with near-zero stock compensation, at roughly 44x earnings and 5.8x sales. IPO hype and a low float may lift it, but majority owner SoftBank's lockup expires in September 2026, an ATM-like overhang. Better mispriced choices exist, such as Reddit. x.com x.comÂ
Shift4 Payments looks mispriced. The founder-led payments platform is growing more than 30% yet trades at a single-digit forward P/E. It posted record 2025 results and made major acquisitions in a massive payments market, but the stock is still more than 50% below its highs. x.comÂ
