Marvell's neutrality lets it win custom silicon across all major US hyperscalers, but those wins should be sized net of the equity they hand back. Its Google deal on TPU-ecosystem chips took share from Broadcom, while Amazon's new custom silicon pact with Qualcomm shows neutrality cuts both ways. Google's warrant over 58.97M shares vests per $500M of purchases, so each $9.9 Google spends earns $1 of Marvell equity. Vesting starting in fiscal Q3 2027 would show the structure works. x.com 

Marvell's custom AI silicon business is scaling very fast after Google struck a deal with it for custom chips covering AI, networking and memory, including an equity stake in Marvell. Stifel says the deal could generate up to $120B of revenue over about seven years, far above Marvell's current annual run rate. x.com  x.com 

Marvell's strong quarter was already priced in, so a sell-the-news decline is likelier. Q2 revenue rose 37% to $2.739B, data center revenue 46%, and Q3 guidance of $3.15B beat estimates; management sees custom silicon revenue more than doubling in FY28 and a path to about $18B of FY28 revenue. But the Google partnership and AI growth were largely traded ahead, and the stock never broke its rising channel's top. Long term, it is still a good company to add to at better prices before the midterms. … Show more

Marvell's custom-silicon deal with Google locks in a major customer and could be worth up to $120 billion of revenue. Signed July 29, it covers AI inference accelerators, storage, network and memory interface controllers and near-memory compute tied to Google's TPU ecosystem. Google gets warrants for up to 58.97 million shares at $206.58, most vesting one tranche per $500 million of discretionary purchases, so the full amount is a very high milestone, not guaranteed revenue. x.com 

Marvell's custom silicon thesis gets more interesting as hyperscaler spending keeps climbing. Google is already guiding $205 billion of capex for 2026 and says 2027 will increase significantly, and Wolfe is now modeling $300 billion for 2027. x.com 

Marvell's potential Lumentum acquisition may fail to increase per-share value because the added profits may not cover dilution and financing costs. A simplified calculation using reported market values implies roughly 38%-45% more shares, requiring about 45% more combined net profit to preserve EPS; debt would add interest and repayment pressure. If the price already reflects future growth, a control premium and possible customer concerns add risk. x.com 

Marvell is networking its way into every hyperscaler through warrant deals, now giving Alphabet options to buy $12.2B of the company. The Google deal covers processors, storage and networking technologies used with TPUs and could translate into about $120 billion of revenue through 2033. Marvell also has separate warrants with Amazon tied to photonic fabric purchases after its Celestial acquisition, recalling Jensen Huang's call that Marvell could be the next $1T+ company. x.com 

Marvell is a 2030 stock: the market sold it 32% off its high because the payoff starts in 2029. Data center is 79% of revenue and growing 46%. Management raised its fiscal 2028 target to $18B, said custom silicon more than doubles next year, and in August signed a Google TPU agreement with up to $120B of revenue potential over six years. x.com 

A possible Lumentum deal could dilute Marvell's shares and add enough debt to cut forecast 2027-28 EPS by at least 20%. A 70% stock structure would require about 360M new shares and $32B in debt; a 50/50 structure, about 275M shares and $57B in debt. A higher multiple from today's 45x looks unlikely to offset the hit soon. The next year could be difficult, even if the deal proves very bullish from 2028 onward. x.com 

Broader adoption of custom AI silicon could benefit Broadcom and Marvell. OpenAI reportedly plans to expand its use of Google's TPUs beyond Nvidia GPUs, and Google TPUs are coming to Oracle Cloud in 2027. Both are potential tailwinds for custom-chip suppliers. x.com