Meta doesn't need the best AI model because it has a huge distribution advantage in its 3.6 billion users. x.com
Burak Finance
Head of Analytics, Growth Investor, PLTR/NBIS/RKLB
Meta's growth and earnings make its valuation appealing. It trades at 17x 2027 estimates with 17% EPS and 22% revenue growth. Its $140 billion EBITDA should make it worth more than Anthropic, which has none, though that comparison could be wrong. If distribution is king, Meta Muse could benefit from Meta's 3.64 billion daily active users, according to GuruFocus News. x.com x.com x.com
Meta's core advertising business is significantly outgrowing its biggest competitors even before factoring in the newer businesses it is building. Q3 ad revenue rose 26% year over year, versus 10.6% at Alphabet and 10.9% at Amazon. Back at 19x forward earnings, Meta is the most undervalued Magnificent Seven stock. x.com x.com
Meta looks unattractive because its fines, capital raises and AI capex make the math ugly. The stock could trade back to the $500s, while hyperscalers probably have to make those raises with equity down 15-25%. Muse looks like a fad and average users may not need AI agents, matching LogicalThesis's view. x.com x.com x.com
Meta's advertising is less vulnerable to AI agents and LLMs because users must scroll Instagram themselves. AI may even give them more time to do so, while Meta retains other mega-caps' AI tailwinds; it remains the best AI stock. CapEx is still a problem. As @diyinvestor1 noted, Meta also has no exposure to OpenAI or Anthropic. x.com x.com x.com
Meta's valuation is compelling again because its operating-cash-flow multiple has fallen while revenue growth accelerated over the past year. It trades at 12x operating cash flow, close to 10x 2027 operating cash flow. Its unique position should make it one of the AI era's biggest winners, with Muse becoming its best asset in the long run. The equity raise's timing was unwelcome, but that is now behind it. x.com
Meta is not the 2022 buying opportunity, when it fell to 5.7x EV/EBITDA. Current free cash flow is non-existent, lawsuits pose tail risk, metaverse spending continues, AI has become an existential risk to social media, and pushback is building against fake AI content and videos. x.com
Meta looks attractive for its highly profitable, sticky Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp business, AI momentum and valuation. Muse already has 2.5 million daily active users, and shares trade at 24.4 times trailing earnings. Founder-CEO Mark Zuckerberg retains voting control; his big wins easily outweigh his mistakes, and at 42 he could have another 30 years of execution ahead. x.com x.com
Meta is not just social media: it holds data on nearly the entire human race, and people are obsessed with its products and likely to keep using them for a long time. @sparkygriswaald adds that at a $1.5 trillion market cap, investors are buying the data and processing layer of the most important technology ever made. x.com
Meta's Muse market sizing may overstate adoption because it extrapolates from some of the most productivity-focused users on earth to consumers who enjoy browsing and may not want an assistant to replace discovery. Heavy capex, unproven technology and product-market fit, unclear ROI and an arguably weaker moat raise the risk of another metaverse-style spending mistake. x.com x.com x.com
Meta Platforms is worth owning because its core business keeps growing 20-30% a year and prints a ton of cash, yet it trades at a teens forward P/E, the cheapest in the Mag 7. The discount is deserved: Metaverse and AI bets have not paid off and it lacks a cloud platform. Still, AI will keep making its ads more efficient, and an overbuilt data center could become a cloud-style offering. Alphabet and Amazon remain preferred, but at $600 and below Meta looks very attractive. x.com x.com