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Jordan

Long-Term Stock Investor, Compounding & Portfolio Construction

21 Oct, 11:17Latest

Netflix's control of its own content keeps growth avenues open even as quality and popularity ebb and flow. Production is costly, but being able to make more is hugely underrated. YouTube pays creators more than double what Netflix spends; its content is not free. Ads need time to gain traction, with live sports where they should prove their worth. Solid earnings outweigh weak short-term guidance; Netflix should become one of Wall Street's hottest stocks again, with targets well into the $150s. x.com x.com x.com x.com

NFLX

20 Oct, 20:34

Netflix's ad rollout into nearly a dozen new countries should help grow ad revenue over the next 12 months. Q3 revenue rose 11.8%, operating income 37%, operating margin reached 34.6% and free cash flow was $2.88B. The ad revenue outlook fell from $3B to $2.7B and needs to be stronger, but higher-than-expected subscriptions ease concern about slowing revenue growth. Growth may ebb and flow with content and consumption; Netflix should still be significantly bigger in five years. x.com x.com

NFLX

Nicholas Mugalli

Institutional TMT & Macro Research, AI/Semiconductors/Policy

20 Oct

NFLX

Netflix's ad tier can improve its long-run economics while the stock prices in decline. It is the second most-watched platform on US TV behind YouTube; ad-tier members pay subscriptions and generate ad revenue, with room to improve fill and pricing. Revenue growth, margins and buybacks underpin an Overweight rating and $103 target, 46% upside at the preview price. The quarter was solid, but the soft Q4 guide and ad forecast cut from $3B to ~$2.7B are setbacks the author sees as fixable. x.com … Show more

Just a Dude Who Invests

Retail Investor, Economics & Technology Commentary

21 Oct

NFLX

Netflix's improving engagement and record free-cash-flow yield make its continued stock decline look misplaced. Viewing hours rose 24% year over year; CEO Greg Peters said Q3 churn improved globally and in the US, beating forecasts. CFO Spence Neumann expects sustained double-digit revenue growth. x.com x.com

Dr J Rould

Full-Time Tech Investor, Quantum/Cybersecurity, Philosophy Background

28 Oct

NFLX

Netflix faces high costs to keep producing major hits, while live TV is expensive and competitive and viewing habits are changing rapidly. It remains a good business and the stock should eventually find support, but even after its decline it is not appealing at this level. x.com

Ashton Invests

Long-Term Equity Investor, Fundamental Stock Research

28 Oct

NFLX

Netflix's growing free cash flow leaves room to keep returning capital to shareholders. It repurchased about $4.8 billion of shares in Q3 and nearly $13 billion over the past 12 months, supporting long-term bullishness. x.com

Ross Gerber

CEO of Gerber Kawasaki, Portfolio Manager of GK ETF

21 Oct

NFLX

Netflix's problems are solvable while it prints money, making the stock a bargain at this price with a huge moat and great franchise. Its strategy should include more movies in theaters, sports only at a reasonable cost, a fixed ad business, and buying Take-Two to own a game studio and IP; GTA6 is a huge opportunity to connect with younger viewers and run ads in-game. x.com x.com

Prepared Remarks

Equity Investor, Macro Commentary

28 Oct

NFLX

Netflix's earnings growth cannot keep relying on price increases or a one-time ad-tier rollout when future ad growth depends on impressions. The password-sharing crackdown, ad tier and repeated price hikes amid declining time spent signal a mature business; podcasts and live sports look like attempts to find another growth leg. There is no reason to own the stock beyond its discount to historical valuation, which it should command. x.com x.com

Matt C

Cybersecurity Engineer, Bitcoin Background Since 2014

21 Oct

NFLX

Netflix's more reasonable valuation and efforts to get leaner make the stock tempting here. Its 18 P/E has come back down to earth and its forward valuation no longer trades at an expensive premium; Q3 earnings were solid, it laid off executives and 6% of staff, and it is significantly expanding live sports. Under $60 would be a smash buy. x.com x.com

Techquity

Technology Investor, Fundamental Research

20 Oct

NFLX

Netflix's slowing growth and reduced ad forecast temper the case for ads as a growth engine. Growth eased from 17% a year ago to 12%, with 11.5% expected next quarter; this year's ad revenue forecast fell from about $3 billion to $2.7 billion. Free cash flow guidance fell from $12.5 billion to $12 billion. A more appealing P/E could make adding shares worth considering. x.com x.com

Oliver | MMMT Wealth

Founder of MMMT Wealth, CPA, Technical/Fundamental Analysis

21 Oct

NFLX

Netflix's competition and valuation leave its risk/reward well behind other opportunities. It competes with Amazon, Disney, Apple and YouTube, while trading at about 20x next-twelve-month earnings for roughly 14% annual EPS growth over the next few years. It is mostly a great company, but these numbers do not make it a multibagger. x.com x.com x.com x.com

Jason Luongo

Growth-Stock Options Trader, LEAPS & Income Strategies

24 Aug

NFLX

Netflix has a second growth engine most people ignore, with advertising revenue doubling to $3 billion this year. Management guides 12-14% revenue growth at a 31.5% operating margin, and its content moat deepens every year it outspends everyone. x.com

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