Matthew Tuttle
CEO & CIO of Tuttle Capital Management, Publisher of Daily H.E.A.T.
Agility Robotics' SPAC merger with Churchill Capital Corp XI is not the retail-access win it is sold as, because the venture returns are already gone. Amazon, SoftBank and Foxconn aren't new backers; they are rolling existing equity under a 180-day lockup. The $200M minimum cash condition signals that sponsors expect heavy redemptions rather than offering a safeguard. Public investors get the leftover risk without the leftover upside. x.com x.comÂ
Agility Robotics, via the Churchill Capital XI merger, is too early to own: it seeks a $2.5B valuation on an estimated $30-35M of trailing revenue. It is a really cool company, but no sure thing. x.comÂ
Churchill Capital Corp XI buyers are paying a 60%+ premium for Agility Robotics financials they have never seen. Agility disclosed no revenue, burned about $100M last year, and runs Digit at $10-12 an hour versus the $2-3 its model needs; its $300M order book is not revenue. At about $16, the SPAC implies about $5.4B versus the $2.5B deal. Agility's 65,000+ commercial hours, customers like Amazon and Foxconn-led PIPE are real, but most de-SPACs trade below $10. The coming S-4 decides it. x.comÂ
SEC clearance brings Agility Robotics closer to becoming the preferred publicly traded US humanoid pure play. Its merger registration is effective, and a shareholder vote around November 2 is estimated; the company expects a November close, subject to Churchill XI shareholder approval and customary conditions. Agility trails Unitree and others now, but its US focus and backing from Nvidia and Amazon remain appealing. x.com x.comÂ
Churchill Capital Corp XI, the SPAC merging with Agility Robotics, buys a story at a high multiple, not an easy investment. Agility's Digit humanoid is already deployed at Schaeffler, GXO, Toyota Manufacturing Canada and MercadoLibre, but revenue is undisclosed, opex nearly doubled to $111 million and it burned $102 million in 2025. At $10 a share the implied enterprise value is about $2.8 billion; after the run to about $17.40 it is about $5.3 billion. Blue-chip backing is not a thesis. x.com … Show more
Cerebras shares face selling pressure as a sizable unlock hits its tiny float. Per the prospectus, about 28 million Class A shares held by directors, officers and non-employee holders become tradable on the second trading day after Tuesday's earnings, only about three months after listing. With IPOs coming years later, VC and PE backers collect the gains while retail becomes exit liquidity, needing seven years of 70% revenue growth to justify the valuation. x.com x.comÂ
Unitree's 620% IPO debut gives humanoid robots their first public valuation benchmark, and Churchill Capital Corp XI, merging with Agility Robotics at a $2.5 billion pre-money valuation, offers the American equivalent at a fraction of it. Agility would be the only US-listed pure-play humanoid firm, with Digit deployed at Amazon, GXO, Toyota and Schaeffler and over $300 million in binding orders. Doubts remain: CCXI fell after the debut, and @amitisinvesting asks why Agility needs a hyped SPAC. … Show more
Kodiak AI is one of the money-losing SPAC mergers that should have stayed private longer, lacking a clear near-term path to profitability or enough cash to get there. Coming public via SPAC is not itself the problem: Vertiv is up 2,000% since its merger closed, but for every such success there are about 20 money-losers. x.comÂ
SpaceX shares face short-term selling pressure and volatility as the post-IPO lock-up ends for about 912 million shares, which could more than double the publicly tradable supply. Meaningful selling is likely from early investors, some holding over a decade and with venture funds needing to return capital, while employees may cash out a portion. A complete collapse is unlikely unless insiders sell far more than expected; better to stay away until the market absorbs the supply. x.comÂ
Churchill Capital Corp XI's $2.5B merger with Agility Robotics brings humanoids with deployed proof. Agility has 65,000+ operating hours across 9 live sites, its Digit moved over 100,000 totes at a GXO facility in the first commercial humanoid deployment, and it holds $300M+ in multi-year orders with 30+ customers in the pipeline. Holders roll 100% of equity, Foxconn leads a $200M PIPE at $10, and Nvidia works with it on safety. The $2.5B pre-money looks conservative versus private comps. x.comÂ
Xanadu's stock was a textbook trap that has now sprung, falling about 60% premarket as insiders exit. An S-1 registered about 294M shares for resale by existing holders, which brings the company nothing and floods the float of a startup with $4.6M in annual revenue. A multi-billion-dollar valuation was unsustainable, and as a post-SPAC name its hype premium evaporated once lockups and conversions hit. Brilliant technology doesn't make a safe stock when insiders rush for the exits. x.comÂ
