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Jordan

Long-Term Stock Investor, Compounding & Portfolio Construction

17 Aug, 11:39Latest

Alibaba offers opportunity at $123 as a front-runner in China's AI buildout, particularly if its AI spending shows real returns and it proves it can compete with the US. Over $56 billion of AI and cloud investment over three years has made current free cash flow negative, like US hyperscalers. Cloud growth is expected near 45%, AI products are already 30% of external cloud revenue, and it holds $38 billion of net cash. Cloud growth, capex and guidance will drive the earnings reaction. x.com

BABA

Tom Shaughnessy

Founding Partner at Delphi Ventures, Co-Founder of Delphi Digital

4 Aug

BABA

Alibaba is the cleanest public-market bet that Chinese AI labs are innovating rather than just distilling, and that cheaper models drive more usage. If China is innovating, Qwen drives Alibaba Cloud share; if Jevons paradox holds, Alibaba captures the spend across models, compute, data, chips and apps. AI products are already 30% of Alibaba Cloud's external revenue, above a $5B run rate, and the commerce cash engine can carry it through the capex/revenue mismatch. x.com

Cole

Momentum Stock & Options Trading, Public Trading Journal

29 Oct

GOOGL

Alphabet's AI spending is visibly turning into revenue, more than many other names can say today. Cloud is nearly a quarter of revenue, growing 103% at a 36% operating margin with a $561B backlog; total revenue rose 25%, operating income 30%, and margins are expanding. Free cash flow has been negative for two quarters, capex keeps climbing into 2027, and AI leaves search monetization uncertain. x.com

M Mohan

Private Equity at IncVangal, Former Microsoft Ventures Director

1 Sep

BABA

Alibaba's full AI stack is not yet working economically: it loses $4 for every $1 of revenue, and that is the whole thesis risk. AI Labs lost RMB13.9B, cloud profit covers only 41% of that hole, and commerce is still funding the entire AI build. The cloud business works; the full AI stack does not yet. x.com

Jan Zuazo Pfingsten

Thematic Investor, Physical Scarcity & AI Infrastructure, Primary-Source Research

28 Oct

NBIS

AI infrastructure suppliers still have healthy demand despite tense financing. Q4's spending pace contradicts the reading that flat capex means a slowdown, while Cloud growth is 103%. Alphabet's negative free cash flow and share issuance are what punish its stock; a supplier selloff tomorrow would be an opportunity, not an exit signal. x.com

Masa’s Son

Non-Consensus Long/Short Technology Investor

14 Oct

BABA

Alibaba is a contrarian trade because accelerating demand for relatively cheaper compute is very underappreciated, and China's cloud market is still in its infancy versus the US. Alibaba is a consensus short as upside from closed-source AI looks illusory. x.com x.com

Nicholas Mugalli

Institutional TMT & Macro Research, AI/Semiconductors/Policy

24 Aug

BABA

Alibaba's $10.2 billion Hong Kong share placement shows its cash burn has caught up with it, and more dilution is likely. Core China ecommerce makes roughly $30 billion of flat EBIT, half of it reinvested in quick commerce to defend share against PDD. Cloud and AI earns $2 billion of EBIT growing 35% but burns about $10 billion a year in AI-model opex. Pro forma EBIT of about $7 billion collapses after $20-25 billion of annual capex, so Alibaba will keep tapping equity markets. x.com

Mind Investor

Technical Stock Analyst & Investment Educator

5 Oct

BABA

Alibaba at $110 is one of the most mispriced mega-caps because investors effectively get its AI and cloud business for free. The company is worth about $270B and holds around $70B in cash and liquid investments, while core e-commerce generated almost $5.9B of adjusted EBITA in one quarter, roughly $230B annualized at just 10x. AI and cloud may be Alibaba's most valuable part five years from now. x.com

Value Investigator

Quality-Growth Investor, Fundamental Research & Portfolio Strategy

13 May

BABA

Alibaba's market cap is only about 10x the next 12 months' sales of its cloud business, so the e-commerce behemoth comes for free. The cloud business now has a $24 billion revenue run rate, growing 38% year over year and still accelerating, and it is early days in China. A post the author replies to counters that Alibaba Cloud's margins are only 3-5% versus AWS's 30%, but Google Cloud's margins three to four years ago versus today show how that can change. x.com x.com

The Few Bets That Matter

Concentrated Equity Investor, AI Infrastructure

22 Mar

BABA

Alibaba is tough to hold because it is splitting investment between e-commerce and AI, creating massive execution risk. AI is so capex-hungry that, as Western examples show, Alibaba cannot spread spending and still reach comparable results. The market sees China e-commerce spending, including the quick-commerce race, as having no ROI, and is right. Replies argue Alibaba has no choice; it might still make it, but the risk is that its AI push slows. x.com x.com x.com

Teng Yan

Founder of Tessara, AI Buildout & Supply-Chain Research

29 Oct

GOOGL

Alphabet's AI growth is harder to turn into cash because capacity shortages require rented compute while TPU system sales tie up inventory before delivery. Cloud grew 103%, with system sales contributing meaningfully; management expects rented compute to pressure Q4 Cloud margins. Q3 free cash flow was -$9.1B, partly reflecting inventory build and a one-off EU fine, while AI Mode monetizes less effectively than traditional Search. The dip is probably a buy with a reasonable timeframe. x.com … Show more

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