Jordan
Long-Term Stock Investor, Compounding & Portfolio Construction
Lockheed Martin looks like a really great opportunity in defense, with orders outpacing deliveries at a reasonable valuation. Its backlog is a record $230B, almost 3x expected 2026 revenue, after $65B of new Q2 orders. Q2 sales grew 11% to $20.1B, and management raised free cash flow guidance to over $7B for 2026. It trades at about 18-19x 2026 earnings, reasonable for a sector leader; the next few weeks are about finding an entry point. x.com
Lockheed Martin's strong earnings, raised guidance and a potential historic F-35 deal support its stock as the price presses toward a wedge breakout. Q3 EPS and sales exceeded estimates; the F-35 deal remains potential. x.com
Applied Aerospace & Defense's record $1.13B backlog and sole-supplier role on 87% of its business make it much stronger than its chart looks. Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose 38.5%, and customers include SpaceX and Anduril. Jefferies named it one of its top small/mid-cap cyclical ideas with a Buy rating and $20 target, more than 80% above Wednesday's close. The falling-wedge trigger is $11.54. x.com
Drone stocks fell in 2026 even as backlogs hit records: Ukraine turned aircraft into ammunition, and the Pentagon's 2027 request holds nearly $75B for drones and counter-drone. AeroVironment's reordered loitering munitions and Kratos's jet drones are highest conviction. Counter-drone names Ondas, Axon, Motorola Solutions, Safe Pro, DroneShield and Rheinmetall gain as threats grow, Unusual Machines from Chinese-parts bans. Primes bury drone exposure; pure plays may not convert backlog. x.com … Show more
Lockheed Martin's earnings beat and raised guidance point to a defense-stock shortage quietly approaching. Per TrendSpider, third-quarter EPS was $7.97 against $7.42 expected and sales were $20.711 billion against $20.495 billion expected; FY2026 GAAP EPS and sales guidance were raised. x.com
Lockheed Martin is cheap against its earnings, trading at 22x trailing and 18x next year's, versus the 24x aerospace and defense suppliers usually get. At 24x next year's $32.72 EPS, give or take 12%, fair value runs $690.97 to $879.42, so the stock sits 15% below where fair value starts. This is a valuation read on reported earnings and estimates only, not fundamental work. x.com
Lockheed Martin is a defensive core holding with near-monopoly defense franchises and steady cash flow. The F-35, over 25% of revenue, is the only fifth-generation fighter deployed at scale in the West, and FY2026-27 budgets raise F-35 funding 62% and more than double PAC-3 and THAAD procurement. Backlog is $186.4B, 2.4x annual revenue, new Army and Navy contracts landed May 28, and over 60% of free cash flow goes to dividends and buybacks. x.com
Lockheed Martin is a strong geopolitical diversifier alongside the energy complex for investors heavily long semiconductors. It landed a Pentagon deal for 850 F-35 jets and raised its annual forecast; the multi-model signal has been long since October 16. x.com
Lockheed Martin is the straightforward defense buy, with a 3.2x book-to-bill. The stock fell last quarter because capex rose to meet very high demand, a dumb reaction. @kaizen_cap adds that money from awarded contracts flows over multiple years, so peak awards and revenue recognition may come in 2027-2028 even with a flat budget. x.com x.com
Lockheed Martin looks pretty cheap at about 16.5x 2027 earnings for a business with effectively infinite duration. x.com x.com
RTX's roughly $51 billion in recent multi-year missile deals and expanding backlog support a bullish setup. Backlog reached $289 billion last quarter, up 22% year over year, and management raised full-year sales, EPS and free cash flow guidance. The trigger is $193.90, with chart targets of $197.35, $200.41 and $202.67. x.com
