Cole Grinde
Stock & Options Investor, Dividends/Value/Fundamentals, Tesla
Rocket Lab is undervalued, held down by the SpaceX IPO in adjacent sectors, while it remains an excellent picks-and-shovels business for the space industry. Its new space solar cell is 32% efficient, 40% lighter and removes germanium entirely, adding power with less weight, cutting supply chain risk and deepening its role in satellite infrastructure. x.comÂ
Investors rotating into cheaper stocks with more upside should ultimately benefit Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile. Both have already suffered major drawdowns. x.comÂ
Good SpaceX earnings could help Rocket Lab lead the new-space sector higher with a rally as violent as its capitulation. Rocket Lab is the sector leader outside SpaceX; its RSI is extremely oversold, the lower Bollinger band is overstretched and MACD's negative divergence is subsiding. Three upside gaps lie at $55.25-59.18, $64.22-65.71 and $73.11-74.76. The highest should fill before year-end, though the exact date is hard to predict. x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab still looks ridiculously expensive at 29 times forward sales against SpaceX at 22 times, even after a 65% fall. At 22 times, Rocket Lab would be roughly $38, and SpaceX would still be the pick. SpaceX also has better forward guidance; Rocket Lab's negative adjusted EBITDA makes sales multiples the valuation yardstick. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab should see money flow back once SpaceX's rich valuation corrects. SpaceX's listing day could be sell-the-news, pulling Rocket Lab back to $90-100 at most, but at roughly 90-100x sales it is valued about the same as SpaceX at around 115x. With expected Nasdaq inclusion on June 22 and capital rotating from SpaceX into quality space stocks, a lower-high move toward the $130 target banks just raised is possible. x.com x.comÂ
Rocket Lab has legitimate buying behind it, visible in weekly volume, and could take out $100 this time, perhaps after a pullback, helped by the SpaceX IPO pump. Prior highs around $98-100 are the resistance to clear. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab has no reason to climb back above $100 anytime soon without a huge catalyst. Earnings were OK but nothing to rave about, and Neutron was delayed. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab looks set for a major comeback as SpaceX, the main reason the space sector sold off, starts performing better. The same failed head-and-shoulders pattern that preceded Rocket Lab's parabolic 2024 run has formed again, with the stock bottoming exactly at the neckline, and SpaceX's improvement is already showing in other space stocks. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab is a great company worth owning at a discount, and its elevated volatility pays well to wait for one. It is the only US public rocket company at scale, its backlog grows every quarter and revenue is up 55% year over year. Its implied volatility is among the highest in the space sector, with IV rank above 60%, while weekly EMA clouds are green and daily RSI just hit 44. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab could face a difficult 9-12 months because much of the space industry's future is already priced into equity valuations, even as its business and backlog grow. A monthly close below the $61 21-month EMA would raise the risk that the uptrend has ended and shift attention toward $35-45 for a better long-term entry; holding $61 preserves a more constructive reading. The company could still trade considerably higher over a longer horizon. x.comÂ
Rocket Lab is the space stock still priced like a growth stock, and it is building its larger Neutron rocket to compete directly with SpaceX. It has over 70 successful launches and active contracts with the US Space Force and NASA, and Trump signed an executive order in December designating space a core national security priority. SpaceX is the obvious space pick. x.comÂ