Kioxia is gaining NAND share as AI eats through storage, while Samsung and SK hynix shift resources to HBM. Staying focused on NAND has given it production costs 20-30% below competitors. Its quarterly operating profit hit $3.8B, passing Toyota as one of Japan's most profitable businesses, with about $15B of net income expected in 2027. Even after rising 2,000% in a year it trades at 8.9x forward earnings and is preparing a US listing. The key question is whether NAND pricing holds. x.com  x.com 

Kioxia's valuation gap with SanDisk should close as it pursues a US ADS listing, after the most violent earnings beat in memory this cycle. Hyperscalers are building AI data centers faster than NAND supply can keep up, so prices are surging: its SSD segment nearly doubled in a quarter despite lower shipments. Revenue rose 84.5% and operating profit 318%. It owns 51% of the fabs making SanDisk's chips and outsold it last quarter, yet is worth $152 billion to SanDisk's $208 billion. x.com  x.com 

Kioxia's need to do a buyback is proof that the flash-memory boom is over. x.com 

Large passive buying relative to Kioxia's float should support it over the next month. The TPX buying event involves 56 million shares on Thursday (roughly $4-4.4 billion), with another 56 million at November's end; an earnings buyback would add more if announced. Early buyers are stopping out before Thursday. Fundamentals also offer support, so it is not a terrible time to pick a level, though October 30 earnings are the main risk. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Kioxia is very shareholder friendly at about 4x earnings, choosing to buy back stock rather than spend on capex. Per @jukan05, it plans to repurchase up to 30 million shares, 5.5% of shares outstanding, for up to ¥800 billion between August 3 and October 30, alongside April-September operating profit guidance of ¥3.16 trillion and a 3-for-1 split. A miss against expectations would matter more if the stock were still at ¥100,000 rather than near ¥49,000. x.com  x.com 

Kioxia faces eroding pricing power as surging chip production capacity threatens the storage-chip boom. TSMC's signal of a hike in 2026 capex to $64 billion fed fears that new capacity will erode the pricing that made memory a gold mine, amid broader doubts that AI spending turns into stable profits. The stock has fallen 52% from its June highs. After a 600% climb on retail leverage, the descent is rarely gentle, and in cyclical industries supply-side realities catch up to the hype. x.com 

Kioxia's absence from Robinhood filters out a cohort of boom-bust buyers and sellers. That is its most appealing feature here; it is the memory stock to add at these levels rather than Micron, SanDisk or SK hynix, despite reservations about its unsponsored ADR. x.com 

Kioxia is priced for a cyclicality that long-term agreements are removing, as those contracts form the backbone of its forward earnings. It also has an 800B yen buyback, putting it at a compelling price on the AI watchlist. x.com 

Kioxia's 74% operating margin is a shortage premium with an expiration date set by its own investor deck. AI inference storage demand is real, but management's supply-demand chart shows NAND returning toward balance by late 2027, and its long-term model targets mid-20% operating margins. The stock is about 12x the annualized peak quarter but roughly triple that on the company's normalized plan. The bull case: hyperscaler contracts and the inference-storage tier keep margins structurally higher. … Show more

Kioxia's P/E and growth are about as good as investing gets, so anyone worried about holding it here simply owns too much. Fear around Chinese AI models looks misplaced: they cost just as much to serve as US models, which points to an even bigger compute shortage. Short term, momentum has turned and selling across the compute trade is likely to continue, but the plan is to ride it out; there is some risk, as always. x.com